tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post116431750882163354..comments2023-09-29T19:58:01.381+08:00Comments on 紅猴 redMONKEY: 24 Nov 2006 - 沽空大快活(52)買入大家樂(341):以往Arbitrage的好例子紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-1164521933443926862006-11-26T14:18:00.000+08:002006-11-26T14:18:00.000+08:00Vincent,每年預期回報is the expected rate of return by in...Vincent,<BR/><BR/>每年預期回報is the expected rate of return by investing in this stock. The more the risk of the stock, the more the expected rate of return to compensate for the additional risk borne.<BR/><BR/>According to "Present Value for a Perpetual Annuity"<BR/><BR/>以盈利計預期估值 = 每股盈利 / (每年預期回報 - 盈利平均年增長)<BR/><BR/>To be conservative, assume 盈利平均年增長 = 0. Then, 以盈利計預期估值 = 每股盈利 / 每年預期回報<BR/><BR/>Thus, the logic should be that "incresaing 每年預期回報 is due to larger risk of stock, which resulted in smaller 預期估值" with the same 每股盈利<BR/><BR/>Redmonkey紅猴https://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-1164521079093955902006-11-26T14:04:00.000+08:002006-11-26T14:04:00.000+08:00Sam,Please read the definition of arbitrage from t...Sam,<BR/><BR/>Please read the definition of arbitrage from the below link<BR/><BR/>http://www.riskglossary.com/link/arbitrage.htm<BR/><BR/>You are talking about "true arbitrage" and I am talking about "speculative arbitrage"<BR/><BR/>Speculative arbitrage 的重點是invest without capital (No cost investment)<BR/><BR/>Arbitrage最理想是同一隻Asset於兩個市場有不同價,便可低買高沽,通常是大户遊戲;沽空大快活(52)買入大家樂(341)則有一點變種,由「同一隻Asset於兩個市場」變成「同一類Asset於同一個市場」,但Concept仍是「Buy Underprized,Sell Overprized」。<BR/><BR/>John,<BR/><BR/>其實筆者於11月24日的股評已回應如下<BR/><BR/>「一大堆新股山東招金、建滔積層板、中國通訊服務、中國交通建設、真明麗、安莉芳、中煤能源、錦江酒店等行將大市,筆者最近工作繁重,抱歉應沒有時間逐一分析,希望有時間作簡評及表明筆者認購取態。但抽新股已變成了「非理性」的抽獎遊戲,「理性」的分析已淪為輔助工具罷!」<BR/><BR/>Redmonkey紅猴https://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-1164432447149757582006-11-25T13:27:00.000+08:002006-11-25T13:27:00.000+08:00Hi Michael,I was reading your calculation of compa...Hi Michael,<BR/><BR/>I was reading your calculation of companies' value in your posts back in August. I have limited knowledge in companies' valuation and it would be great if you could tell me about where I can read about your method adopted? Or is it based on your own derivation? How do you come up with "每年預期回報"? Is it the "expected profit growth per year"? And I believe that the "以profit計預期估值" figure is being calculated by dividing "profit per share" by 每年預期回報, right? But isn't this the formula for "Present Value for a perpetual annuity", of which the denominator is the interest rate? If the denominator is the expected profit growth per year, then with the calculation, wouldn't the resulting value be actually decreased if the "expected profit growth per year" is increased? And this confuse me here. Sorry if you have explained this somewhere else already.<BR/><BR/>Thanks<BR/>VincentAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-1164394769180910952006-11-25T02:59:00.000+08:002006-11-25T02:59:00.000+08:00請問有哪些新股值得抽?山東招金 建滔積層板 杭州奧普浴霸中國通訊服務 中國交通建設錦江酒店 真明麗 ...請問有哪些新股值得抽?<BR/><BR/>山東招金 <BR/>建滔積層板 <BR/>杭州奧普浴霸<BR/>中國通訊服務 <BR/>中國交通建設<BR/>錦江酒店<BR/> <BR/>真明麗 <BR/>安莉芳 <BR/>中煤能源 <BR/><BR/>- JohnAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-1164337135157563782006-11-24T10:58:00.000+08:002006-11-24T10:58:00.000+08:00I thought Arbitrage involves the concept of risk-f...I thought Arbitrage involves the concept of risk-free?<BR/><BR/>So 沽空大快活(52)買入大家樂(341) shouldnt be called as an arbitrage strategy?<BR/><BR/>SamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com