tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post6969504777803455875..comments2023-09-29T19:58:01.381+08:00Comments on 紅猴 redMONKEY: 29 May 2011 - 投資經驗講義分享及投資組合定期檢討紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-27254956783011690422011-05-31T21:03:22.855+08:002011-05-31T21:03:22.855+08:00As asked by someone previously, it is not my duty ...As asked by someone previously, it is not my duty to disclose where I trade my stock and actually it is not a useful information to make profit in the long-run.<br /><br />By the way, my transaction fee is not low indeed. I think it is a bit above average. I know that there are channels to trade stock with slim commission. However, trading safe is more crucial for me!紅猴https://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-62993340590700547062011-05-31T15:39:43.178+08:002011-05-31T15:39:43.178+08:00紅猴大哥,多謝你一直以來的分享。見你的手續費很低,請問是那間證券行呢?紅猴大哥,多謝你一直以來的分享。見你的手續費很低,請問是那間證券行呢?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-76440429342931338582011-05-29T23:37:31.986+08:002011-05-29T23:37:31.986+08:00"淘汰落後產能,對像信義這些龍頭企業不是利好"
Normally, this ..."淘汰落後產能,對像信義這些龍頭企業不是利好"<br /><br />Normally, this argument is correct. However, I also doubt if it will also affect the so-called 龍頭企業.<br /><br />However, if the overall industry demand is less than adjusted production capacity, it will also raise concern.紅猴https://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-78252403367711253332011-05-29T23:36:03.151+08:002011-05-29T23:36:03.151+08:00That's why I said "行業短期出問題,長期有否問題未知"...That's why I said "行業短期出問題,長期有否問題未知". The glass price may rebound, but also may fall continuously if the production capacity is "over".<br /><br />Actually, I also think about if the report from 國泰君安 can be fully trusted or not. Or if there is any biased before writing this report. Up to now, no similar analysis has been performed by other investment banks. By the way, the data quoted should be objective and the glass price decrease may be reflected in the recent sharp drop of stock price.<br /><br />My updated valuation to 868 is $8, which is still above the current price. However, the margin of safety is not justified for investment.<br /><br />Your suggestion is good, but it is time-consuming for small investors to make the diagram.<br /><br />On the other hand, we have to understand some media and analysts are 跟紅頂白. No one can understand and follow all the industries and sectors thoroughly.紅猴https://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-2283153447792102352011-05-29T22:44:01.300+08:002011-05-29T22:44:01.300+08:00而且,淘汰落後產能,對像信義這些龍頭企業不是利好嗎?而且,淘汰落後產能,對像信義這些龍頭企業不是利好嗎?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-9338888269409276272011-05-29T22:40:33.161+08:002011-05-29T22:40:33.161+08:00紅猴大哥,
謝謝你對玻璃股的分析,我有一問題想請教大哥。我對玻璃的行情沒有詳細的了解,但用commo...紅猴大哥,<br />謝謝你對玻璃股的分析,我有一問題想請教大哥。我對玻璃的行情沒有詳細的了解,但用common sense來想,玻璃及其他產品的價格波動是正常的,原材料價格波動也是正常的。我相信信義玻璃及中國玻璃上市以來一定也經歷不少次玻璃售價跌而原材料價格升,也會經歷玻璃售價升而原材料價格跌、或兩者價格一起升一起跌。問題是,玻璃售價與原材料價格的升跌是否一定和股價正相關?如果能有一張圖顯示每次玻璃售價跌而原材料價格升的情況下,868的股價都大跌,那會更有說服力。<br /><br />玻璃價格跌不是這幾天的事,一兩個星期前各大媒體還唱好信義(按理那時玻璃售價已跌,但信義股價還穩定),近幾日它股價一跌,就一沉百踩,紛紛說是售價的原因。我很疑惑,真的只是這個原因嗎?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-60655332366729650092011-05-29T17:59:58.767+08:002011-05-29T17:59:58.767+08:00若中國的佐丹奴能做至韓國的佐丹奴一樣高度,那佐丹奴現價還是很平宜,當然那是很長線的預期。
佐丹奴的...若中國的佐丹奴能做至韓國的佐丹奴一樣高度,那佐丹奴現價還是很平宜,當然那是很長線的預期。<br /><br />佐丹奴的品牌塑造性很高,設計或沒SARA, H&M潮,但質量更好、剪裁也不遜,可能也更合亞洲人品味。最強對手或是Uniqlo,但其畢竟是日本品牌,能否大舉侵華,則未必太樂觀。但其現以網售曲線入華,似乎形勢也不錯。<br /><br />但關鍵還是品牌塑造,希望其能從韓國經驗處學到經驗,那現價的100億市值仍真的不多。Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com