tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-101806512024-03-14T14:17:59.416+08:00紅猴 redMONKEY#中原博立 #將投資者和優質股票連繫在一起紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.comBlogger3146125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-59516930858526166782024-03-04T13:05:00.009+08:002024-03-07T13:07:47.611+08:004 Mar 2024 - 美股及Nvidia現在是否一個泡沫?(信報「財智博立」專欄)<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有朋友分享,根據歷史數據,美國</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">S&P500</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">指數自</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">11</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月起連升四個月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">11</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">其實並不多見,可是一旦出現便是一個很「牛」的訊號。事實上,自</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1950</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年起此情況已出現十四次,每次出現後當年的餘下十個月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">3</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">12</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">整體皆是升市,平均每年升幅近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">15%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,亦高於指數歷史平均每年升幅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">8%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。我對相類統計如過去二十年某月份升市多於跌市,便代表今年某月份升市機率很高的預測一直不感興趣,不過連續數個月的股市強勢,加上這數個月橫跨年尾及年初,我認為可以代表市場資金的信心佈局,值得參考的價值大增。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">除非已經成為一個投資熱潮,如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2000</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年的科網股及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2020</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年的增長股,不然大部份投資者是不會跟風買股票的,可是於投資熱潮才入市,大部份結局都是敗興而返,若果想在股市賺到錢,便需走出這個死胡同。大部份投資者往往見到有一年跌市,便會認為股市弱勢已成,下年會繼續跌,就好像近數年的港股般,但卻忘記如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">S&P500</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">指數於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2022</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">19%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,卻在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2023</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年反彈</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">24%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這些事實的存在;而當他們見到有一年升市,卻不會認為股市強勢已成,反而認為高追有風險,而不會入市,待股市回落後才投資會較安全,不過若果股市真的回調,他們又會認為股市弱勢已成,結果還是一個旁觀者,可見大部份投資者都是偏向悲觀思維!至於為何投資熱潮會令他們放下介心,主要還是怕執輸心態作崇,在投資上這稱為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">FOMO</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,即是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Fear of Missing Out</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,可是結果通常不是太好!根據多年經驗,若然有一個理想的投資環境,加上一個清</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體-ExtB",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體-ExtB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">𥇦</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">而現實的投資主題,主題主要公司估值還算合理,身邊大部份人還未入市時,會是一個不錯的投資入市時機!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">其實股市未來一年的升跌,可以說和前一年的股市沒有關係,投資主要還是看前景,一間公司縱使去年業績亮麗,若果預期今年遇阻沒有寸進甚至倒退,又怎會得到市場資金的青睞。一個股市指數或一間公司股價上升,原因不外乎兩個:盈利增加及估值提升,一間估值合理的公司股價上升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">50%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,若果只是反映其每股盈利增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">50%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,其實是一件很合理的事情。<a name="_Hlk160035303">若果股價升了</a>不少,便代表貴,而若果股價升了很多,便代表出現泡沫,其實只是沒有根據的一種感觀思維,真正的投資者會考量如估值及盈利前景等更多實際基本因素。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以公佈業績不久的生成式</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI(GenAI)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">代表公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Nvidia(NVDA)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">為例,其業績優於市場事前的高預期值,連未來業績指引也高於市場預期,致公佈翌日股價上升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">16%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">$785</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,並創歷史新高,有不少評論認為反應非常誇張,美股及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">GenAI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">泡沫已成,我們嘗試撇除感性而做個理性分析。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Nvidia</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">財報每年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月年結,以股價</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">$785</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">計,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2025</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月年度預期市盈率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(PE)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">32</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">倍,去年度最高</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">PE</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">53</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">倍,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2020</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年聯儲局放水後三年間每年最高</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">PE</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">達</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">80</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">倍,而放水前的兩年也在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">40</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">50</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">倍水平,期間亦經歷過芯片的高低週期,以此作比較現水平股價也不可叫做泡沫。接著再看看市場對其盈利預測是否理性,因</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">GenAI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有提高生產力及加快研發等實際效用,大語言模型</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(LLM)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">訓練及應用對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">GPU</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的需求於至少未來一年仍然很大,加上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Microsoft(MSFT)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Meta(META)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">等自行研發</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">芯片到有成果還需要一點時間,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2025</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月年度每股盈利預期增長</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">105%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">達成的機會率也不可說低。若果現在認為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Nvidia</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是一個泡沫,便需舉證</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">GenAI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">於未來一兩年需求不似預期,或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Nvidia</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">GPU</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">被大幅取代而不再供不應求,不然也只是沒有根據的一種感觀思維吧,但投資者需知道這個風險的存在,好好控制風險永遠是投資上一個重要考量。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">/</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中原資產管理投資總監<br />執筆之時,筆者授權</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">/</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">基金客户持有上述股票,並會按不同股票的風險因素配置在不同產品上</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8vEJR-_xDn7IIClkNOgKg8zj4BNN6AE-NO_ktRjt1z3364SoxlEkEDdvTyIxiE3_07AZCY1fn5dHOzZZd_O0Z1p9CT1cdRgLYGDc9B3Ji9kyIy1G9B5PD3uSllQfBDrkumedLEOwp6cMWL6c1uwLKsRJOhNm9eEdiVxEmVcUPCYPjBvEHb11K/s1200/11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8vEJR-_xDn7IIClkNOgKg8zj4BNN6AE-NO_ktRjt1z3364SoxlEkEDdvTyIxiE3_07AZCY1fn5dHOzZZd_O0Z1p9CT1cdRgLYGDc9B3Ji9kyIy1G9B5PD3uSllQfBDrkumedLEOwp6cMWL6c1uwLKsRJOhNm9eEdiVxEmVcUPCYPjBvEHb11K/w640-h336/11.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"></span><p></p>
紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-1372468010071003142024-02-19T16:51:00.011+08:002024-02-20T16:53:36.186+08:0019 Feb 2024 - 從失敗中學習至重新上路 (信報「財智博立」專欄)<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">回顧多年投資,最失敗的年份定必是2022年,尚幸2023年算是穩定下來,2024年開始見成果。環視中港股票投資市場,近兩三年可謂血流成河,無論用甚麼投資方法,運用甚麽投資策略,絕大部份都是敗興而返,有些更被沒頂!失敗原因最容易追溯到中港股市的不濟,無論多優質的公司,明明估值已很便宜,股價還是跌到好像沒完沒了,過往很多賴以成功的因素也派不上用場。香港近十年最成功的中國增長基金,長期投資在盈利增長穩定的優質中國公司上,過往乘中國經濟增長紅利,其出色的選股表現自然事半功倍,可是也正因為基金本身一定要投資中國公司,過往兩年中國經濟經歷中美交惡、疫情、內房、行業監管等的負面影響,可謂躺着也中槍,宏觀影響大於微觀,選股相對已變得不重要。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">對中國經濟的討論,現在大家聚焦的是現時低潮只是週期底部,還是正經歷結構性轉變。有些評論會簡單的認為樂觀的便看前者,悲觀的便看後者,其實講與不講也沒有分別。平心而論,中國現在要解決的問題包括房地產供過於求、內房企業負債嚴峻、失業減薪、消費信心低迷、通縮等,着實需要政府一個大型救市措施以撥亂反正,可惜至今有很多傳聞,但未見具體方案,中國經濟能否避免變成結構性問題,還需等待政府如何處理。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">投資上永遠最簡單的策略是買當頭起,當然揀當頭起也是一個學問,而當頭起不再時需要適時撤退,便是另一個學問。因為在後者上做得不好,結果便迎來失敗的2022年,那年美國聯儲局加息既急且多,通脹很高,是數十年未遇過的事情,因此低估其對公司估值水平調整的負面影響。另外,大家都知道「失敗乃成功之母」,可是一不小心,成功也可以是失敗之母,2020年時賴以成功的長期投資思維,於2022年反而成為未能適時撤退的枷鎖,但是經一事長一智,藉2022年的失敗來一個反省,期望未來可以做得更好。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">說回揀當頭起,2022年既然因美國加息及通脹上升,成為當頭起不再之年,美國股市也因此大幅調整,到2023年美國通脹已逐步回落,2024年正預期聯儲局減息,便有機會因宏觀因素改善而成為當頭起年份。接著,我們需要選擇一個最有效受惠的市場,整體經濟及企業盈利可算是寒暑表,就著這兩方面,中國仍然充滿不確定性,美國經濟數據近月雖有反覆,但是仍偏向正面,最近公布的企業盈利大多持續上升,因此美國股市可以是一個當頭起市場。美國股市指數去年至今表現理想,但見一些較早時候已表明將投資重點市場由中港股市轉移至美國股市的基金表現卻不理想,因為美國股市升市市寬不夠,未去到「豬遇大風也會飛」的地步,所以選行業及選股仍很重要,捉到鹿也要懂脫角。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">開首提到,經歷最失敗的2022年後,2023年算是穩定下來,2024年開始見成果,主因去年中開始提升美股於組合中的比重,較重點投資在生成式AI及GLP-1兩個範疇,原因不只是純粹跟風,而是看重它們的實際效用。生成式AI是一個着實幫到企業增加生產力及工作效率的工具,不同行業的企業會用真金白銀去投資在這個工具上以增強競爭力,工具提供者自然會受惠;GLP-1現時是醫治糖尿病及體重控制上最好的藥物,供不應求情況非常嚴重,只要處理好供應,藥物提供者的業績自然會理想。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">投資自然希望乘風破浪,不過我們是次會謹記持續留意當頭起的美國股市及上述兩個範疇相關公司的成功因素有否轉變,估值是否已經變得不合理,亦不會低估宏觀政經環境對投資市場的可能負面影響,希望可以在當頭起不再時,能夠適時撤退。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIPujUHr3mYIY-003OSi5ZchB9geSGu6l4VZn1vLDFTtyMzalPZjkibo-6hZEdCaKBTTPtrfxFl2bRyxnq5eHYjeX_WmDLvjreuWb8smL8O3e9tIsXXhNSAfb5PL_wqiOW2jOC5h9_yXCy1hFb4LWqO2sf74_7chLlbL4Dpws1yz6czgljuLgL/s1280/17.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIPujUHr3mYIY-003OSi5ZchB9geSGu6l4VZn1vLDFTtyMzalPZjkibo-6hZEdCaKBTTPtrfxFl2bRyxnq5eHYjeX_WmDLvjreuWb8smL8O3e9tIsXXhNSAfb5PL_wqiOW2jOC5h9_yXCy1hFb4LWqO2sf74_7chLlbL4Dpws1yz6czgljuLgL/w640-h360/17.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-56619222893144091182024-02-08T16:58:00.023+08:002024-02-20T17:04:18.133+08:003 Feb 2024 - [美股日常] 很有創意的老牌公司<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Fastenal Company (FAST)向工廠及工程公司客戶提供螺絲釘起家,其後擴展至提供其他工業工具及用品。公司自1987年在美國上市,股價長期隨業績處上升走勢,最近十年升幅超過200%,平均每年複式回報約12%。</span></span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">FAST其中一個經營原則是「盡量接近顧客以提升服務」,因此管理層想到直接在客戶處放置工具及用品自動販賣機FASTVend,很有創意,現在已有超過100,000部遍佈全球不同地方(主要在美國),為近年業務增長點之一。</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI7Z0Jr52amGl1goZ6T8shrNiYVkBF2GbT0uqm36U0SyQyWu53UMIs0yRvOIUkMVoXVGN5LLJcXVpCFoj1VFd96AdYw5ai1XKLGw3dmDY-wrmt2V0R9iZw4XC7GXLiG-GeZy_YUrUgTK0jrhGKuYneZ0gQOgwPny1Tj1kdZzCiw9P-LAtuP9k7/s1350/14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1350" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI7Z0Jr52amGl1goZ6T8shrNiYVkBF2GbT0uqm36U0SyQyWu53UMIs0yRvOIUkMVoXVGN5LLJcXVpCFoj1VFd96AdYw5ai1XKLGw3dmDY-wrmt2V0R9iZw4XC7GXLiG-GeZy_YUrUgTK0jrhGKuYneZ0gQOgwPny1Tj1kdZzCiw9P-LAtuP9k7/w640-h376/14.png" width="640" /></a></div></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">-----------------------------------------</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span>「中原博立」團隊自去年下半年逐步將調研焦點轉移至美股,亦藉此於港股不濟下扭轉所管理組合的命運。我們希望中港經濟爭氣,但現實上投資精力應放在較正常及較明朗化的市場,因此我們現在會投放大部分時間在調研美股上。除了Gen-AI、GLP-1、潮流消費外,我們在美股中也可找到越來越多業績長期增長,財務穩健,而在資產配置上願意回饋股東的公司。我們已透過文章分享過一些個案,這方面會繼續,不過寫文需時,所以有時候也藉「美股日常」分享點滴。</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">-----------------------------------------</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">執筆之時,筆者授權/基金客户沒有持有上述股票</span></div></div>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-63759418117925766692024-02-03T14:55:00.008+08:002024-02-03T14:56:59.073+08:003 Feb 2024 - [美股日常] Deckers Outdoor (DECK)於業績後股價大升分析<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Deckers Outdoor (DECK)股價於週五只消一天便升了$109.21,即14.1%,源於週四收市後公布了一份比市場已提高期望下更理想的業績。除了管理層將全年(2024年3月年結)每股盈利預測提升14%外,業績亮點可歸納為三組英文字:DTC、GPM及UGG。</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">DTC即Director-to-Customer,直營去中間商,DTC佔整體收入持續增加至55%,加上Full Price銷售比率增加及產品組合提升等因素,Q3毛利率(GPM)亦上升5.7個百分點至58.7%,全年GPM指引亦由52.0%提升至54.5%。另外,是年度亮點是收入過去數年停滯不前的公司兩大品牌之一UGG,今年表現持續復甦,在上海開設旗艦店,更推出如sneakers等新產品。另一品牌HOKA當然也不甘示弱,保持理想增長,最近推出全新跑鞋Cielo X1,每對價錢提升至2,000港元以上水平。</span><span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">根據最新股價$882.06,預期是年度市盈率為32.8倍,比過往數年較高的26倍市盈率進一步提升,市場正摸索最新的合理估值水平。 </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-2SlR81EbBvsifOv6uV2m_5QCF6gMoHxjTfTjFXSYH6nlN3XGjN_mWPGVSYwvM2S_Q5P56ARIWp2mTnJXOS27gtD1CzjP-kIHTcLxE3TfMc8l7MpyVOSyCkkzahTiPw1GD6289kCY6nPXgNTYKfVbuz0T-2XCnzo8OesvecbtHHiX9epPB9sF/s920/15.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="920" data-original-width="690" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-2SlR81EbBvsifOv6uV2m_5QCF6gMoHxjTfTjFXSYH6nlN3XGjN_mWPGVSYwvM2S_Q5P56ARIWp2mTnJXOS27gtD1CzjP-kIHTcLxE3TfMc8l7MpyVOSyCkkzahTiPw1GD6289kCY6nPXgNTYKfVbuz0T-2XCnzo8OesvecbtHHiX9epPB9sF/w480-h640/15.jpeg" width="480" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieD9tUVl4QTmpIOrqQD_gKLti-1HTxkHoPE4l0c5BFg6sgpsUg2i_2rpB6fF_vprZfwdmobQ6W14o6RfAIBlhuE4GkRJpPS6HR4zGGRdj-wSAIjRti88iU0o59zhUorDoMdvQSDiHYKpbI-veICVWpQq_pMWfN2IOob7JjCNriS3f1WJseh9Lf/s2000/16.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2000" data-original-width="1333" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieD9tUVl4QTmpIOrqQD_gKLti-1HTxkHoPE4l0c5BFg6sgpsUg2i_2rpB6fF_vprZfwdmobQ6W14o6RfAIBlhuE4GkRJpPS6HR4zGGRdj-wSAIjRti88iU0o59zhUorDoMdvQSDiHYKpbI-veICVWpQq_pMWfN2IOob7JjCNriS3f1WJseh9Lf/w426-h640/16.jpg" width="426" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCr0EXfWvvbS_1g5DHMAh9G7l3TVGy0_Yl3DhLUrka1e1U4Z6la3w_JPTJHSXQMh8H2rWRErTIdYO1i6p8Bfhqh4iGim-jpC5RbEJVaooEkeZV8dMN_t7ORhkAeO1a2OEihXf0vhSf39pkO1dymH9eYkPH3meitCAxwtrVeX8qJuQqJ_rI4v9l/s1600/17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="1600" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCr0EXfWvvbS_1g5DHMAh9G7l3TVGy0_Yl3DhLUrka1e1U4Z6la3w_JPTJHSXQMh8H2rWRErTIdYO1i6p8Bfhqh4iGim-jpC5RbEJVaooEkeZV8dMN_t7ORhkAeO1a2OEihXf0vhSf39pkO1dymH9eYkPH3meitCAxwtrVeX8qJuQqJ_rI4v9l/w640-h426/17.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></span><div dir="auto" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">-----------------------------------------</span></div><div dir="auto" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">「中原博立」團隊自去年下半年逐步將調研焦點轉移至美股,亦藉此於港股不濟下扭轉所管理組合的命運。我們希望中港經濟爭氣,但現實上投資精力應放在較正常及較明朗化的市場,因此我們現在會投放大部分時間在調研美股上。除了Gen-AI、GLP-1、潮流消費外,我們在美股中也可找到越來越多業績長期增長,財務穩健,而在資產配置上願意回饋股東的公司。我們已透過文章分享過一些個案,這方面會繼續,不過寫文需時,所以有時候也藉「美股日常」分享點滴。</span></div><div dir="auto" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">-----------------------------------------</span></div></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監</span><div dir="auto" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">執筆之時,筆者授權/基金客户持有DECK,並會按不同股票的風險因素配置在不同產品上</span></div></div></div>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-80257690419403251462024-02-02T14:57:00.024+08:002024-02-03T15:03:24.865+08:002 Feb 2024 - [美股日常] 從美國五大科企的股價變動領悟到什麼?<p><span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">趁美國五大科企分別公布了最新業績,剛剛做了一個有關股價的小統計,大家可會從不同時期的股價變動領悟到什麼?</span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">AAPL 過去一年+48% / 過去三年 +45%</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">AMZN 過去一年+81% / 過去三年 -7%</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">GOOG <span style="font-family: inherit;"></span>過去一年+59% / 過去三年 +61%</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">META 過去一年+194% / 過去三年 +30%</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">MSFT 過去一年+57% / 過去三年 +69%</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">(以上表現以2023年12月31日收市價作基礎)</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">我留意到的是,雖然MSFT在GenAI後發先至,但是和GOOG的股價於過去一年及過去三年表現相差不大,不知道是否兩間公司都是在GenAI走得較前,成為大小投資者的必然配置。</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">META雖然股價於過去一年大幅上升,但需要留意股價在之前一年下跌了64%,因此去年只是因公司減少投資元宇宙目標,轉移聚焦發展GenAI而得到修正。</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">AMZN股價於過去三年竟然是錄得跌幅,不知是否因轉換領導人,以前的Bezos估值溢價需要下調,而市場對新任CEO Andy Jassy還未建立足夠信心,希望剛剛公布的業績可以令到市場改觀。</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">至於AAPL,雖然在智能手機硬件及軟件平台皆遇到發展阻力,但過去一年股價非常強勢,這個我也不明白!</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIOaWykdH8kPFX0bmgW82ZUefEi-VGFY4SmoTbteUKfQDJvJyZ7OafHcg1ZnryAERHHT2_-ybmIQvVfmvw3GscTwltYJvXpCBpgxoNBHrDSLjnqeTzZnF4AQnfsBIZVwDebOL_scuaQ9VCIRhuquRig0_kN5v6g-OJiAp0AL9tfAUEs9mG5Mma/s526/14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="315" data-original-width="526" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIOaWykdH8kPFX0bmgW82ZUefEi-VGFY4SmoTbteUKfQDJvJyZ7OafHcg1ZnryAERHHT2_-ybmIQvVfmvw3GscTwltYJvXpCBpgxoNBHrDSLjnqeTzZnF4AQnfsBIZVwDebOL_scuaQ9VCIRhuquRig0_kN5v6g-OJiAp0AL9tfAUEs9mG5Mma/w640-h384/14.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">-----------------------------------------</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">「中原博立」團隊自去年下半年逐步將調研焦點轉移至美股,亦藉此於港股不濟下扭轉所管理組合的命運。我們希望中港經濟爭氣,但現實上投資精力應放在較正常及較明朗化的市場,因此我們現在會投放大部分時間在調研美股上。除了Gen-AI、GLP-1、潮流消費外,我們在美股中也可找到越來越多業績長期增長,財務穩健,而在資產配置上願意回饋股東的公司。我們已透過文章分享過一些個案,這方面會繼續,不過寫文需時,所以有時候也藉「美股日常」分享點滴。 </span><div dir="auto" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>-----------------------------------------<br />簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監</span></span><div dir="auto" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>執筆之時,筆者授權/基金客户持有AAPL、AMZN、GOOG、META、MSFT,並會按不同股票的風險因素配置在不同產品上</span></span></div></div></div></div>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-52620668931697239752024-02-01T17:54:00.001+08:002024-02-01T17:54:14.768+08:001 Feb 2024 - [美股日常] GLP-1是否醫藥界的生成式AI?<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">已經分享過不少有關</span><span lang="EN-US">GLP-1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的資訊及我們的看法,</span><span lang="EN-US">GLP-1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的實用及潛力,在醫藥界有如生成式</span><span lang="EN-US">AI(GenAI)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">般,</span><span lang="EN-US">Nvidia(NVDA)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因</span><span lang="EN-US">GenAI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而市值升破</span><span lang="EN-US">10,000</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最新是</span><span lang="EN-US">15,000 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,今天看到一篇報導,提到挪威主權基金看好</span><span lang="EN-US">GLP-1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">先頭部隊</span><span lang="EN-US">Eli Lilly(LLY)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">及</span><span lang="EN-US">Novo Nordisk(NVO)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">市值可到</span><span lang="EN-US">10,000</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">億美元,而現時兩間公司的市值分別是</span><span lang="EN-US">6,100 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">億美元及</span><span lang="EN-US">5,100 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">億美元,其實還有一段距離!不過,現在兩間公司都有個朵,</span><span lang="EN-US">LLY</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是醫療界最高市值公司,</span><span lang="EN-US">NVO</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">則是歐洲最高市值公司。</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">NVO</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">昨天下午在歐洲股市開市前公布業績,超出市場預期,昨天在美國逆市升</span><span lang="EN-US">5.3%(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">下圖為股價過去一年走勢</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。雖然</span><span lang="EN-US">LLY</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的減肥藥</span><span lang="EN-US">Zepbound</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">去年尾已經上市,</span><span lang="EN-US">NVO</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的管理層認為現在仍是良性競爭,因為市場需求很大,現在面對的最大問題始終是產能不夠,先前公布的擴產計劃正在積極進行中,加上透過合作夥伴,產能現時已可以逐步提升。</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公司預期今年收入增幅在</span><span lang="EN-US">18%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US">26%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,經營溢利增幅在</span><span lang="EN-US">21%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US">29%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,管理層認為可以以中位數作為參考。假設每股盈利今年增長</span><span lang="EN-US">25%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,以</span><span lang="EN-US">NVO</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">現價</span><span lang="EN-US">$114.74</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">計,預期今年市盈率約</span><span lang="EN-US">32.8</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倍,過往三年最高股價反映的市盈率皆達</span><span lang="EN-US">38</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倍,可作參考。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSqVLs7t1lCMEHJyl8Tu-Ic97s96eWYowsV3M8ix5lKroKKVhI6pn_YwCbSc_B2ULvs_6MKrHDom1ht7h2GV34l_feGcRveCU1OANpfe7KNZVKJrIcPwi1i1Dd1NMq-xJY7DJEiUGkTUULY6oPpC8i6oAvAu09FRnDF_lBVAzP2BXX6SZutZJc/s434/16.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="223" data-original-width="434" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSqVLs7t1lCMEHJyl8Tu-Ic97s96eWYowsV3M8ix5lKroKKVhI6pn_YwCbSc_B2ULvs_6MKrHDom1ht7h2GV34l_feGcRveCU1OANpfe7KNZVKJrIcPwi1i1Dd1NMq-xJY7DJEiUGkTUULY6oPpC8i6oAvAu09FRnDF_lBVAzP2BXX6SZutZJc/w640-h328/16.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">------------------------------------------------------------</span></span><br /><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">「中原博立」團隊希望中港經濟爭氣,但現實上投資精力應放在較正常及較明朗化的市場,因此我們現在會投放大部分時間在調研美股上。除了</span><span lang="EN-US">Gen-AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">GLP-1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、潮流消費外,我們在美股中也可找到越來越多業績長期增長,財務穩健,而在資產配置上願意回饋股東的公司。我們已透過文章較詳細分享過一些個案,這方面會繼續,不過寫文需時,所以有時候也會藉「美股日常」分享點滴。<br /></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> ------------------------------------------------------------<br /> </span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中原資產管理投資總監<br /></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">執筆之時,筆者及其客户持有Novo Nordisk (NVO)</span></span></span></span></span><span lang="EN-US"></span><p></p>
紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-2545714636005472702024-01-31T17:41:00.001+08:002024-02-01T17:46:15.808+08:0031 Jan 2024 - [美股日常] 投資消費品都係盡量自己去感受一下<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">投資消費品都係盡量自己去感受一下係咪真係咁受歡迎,係咪真係咁好用,好似博立組合去年中投資HOKA母公司DECK,之後慢慢跌至賬面蝕15%,我也在此一直在Facebook Page分享自身對HOKA的所見所聞及使用經驗,感受品牌的受歡迎程度及好用程度,才能堅持至公布了一個理想業績令股價觸底反彈,至現在賬面反賺35%。公司明天盤後公布業績,不過股價已升至預期今年市盈率約28倍,高於過往水平,引證市場已提高期望,過關難度自然大增。</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8PcibEP4JpS4By8-vSw8XkqOggVeaD7NsaGKpdz9yNp2mBDIKshzCx0FtBB0D2Tnd6QlFc7YduCTtX7aHUt6yJ7r5COkUHMo2SF5B1dGm4OLKXL1lHbDf5qSnO8k7uIfAJ7Z1DrCadqCi06onxS7hMQPkHBNO_Fy5TJqGJwV_cap3oVBSBjYg/s1210/13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="1210" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8PcibEP4JpS4By8-vSw8XkqOggVeaD7NsaGKpdz9yNp2mBDIKshzCx0FtBB0D2Tnd6QlFc7YduCTtX7aHUt6yJ7r5COkUHMo2SF5B1dGm4OLKXL1lHbDf5qSnO8k7uIfAJ7Z1DrCadqCi06onxS7hMQPkHBNO_Fy5TJqGJwV_cap3oVBSBjYg/w640-h350/13.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">ONON過去一年股價浮浮沉沉,業績理想,但是市場似乎正消化其高估值,以現價$27.5計,預期今年市盈率約34倍,以一個初起高增長運動加潮流品牌來說,其實不算貴,可能需要等待多一兩次高增長業績的確認。市場預期每股盈利於未來兩年平均每年複式增長38%,作為股東也需要相信有這個水平的增長,信心可以源自親身感受品牌的受歡迎程度及好用程度!按去年時間,公司會在3月中公布最新業績。</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMPcIeN8hgRz57y9nBpkGyTU-0wSzBsMU6fjy8U0w0E3wu3kxiLTgSKnjXiWjS8Jqa1UYcDLnIV7tt3f2fBJI7hPDIhUGXVet5iX_dsQF9nZBY451W0SgAaD6IPKGXTRsRtq8_DqLBe-9ZhdYfIT_lpGylK9Tzu_Qy6rchbfG8oeRX1mwnsrJE/s1217/14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="1217" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMPcIeN8hgRz57y9nBpkGyTU-0wSzBsMU6fjy8U0w0E3wu3kxiLTgSKnjXiWjS8Jqa1UYcDLnIV7tt3f2fBJI7hPDIhUGXVet5iX_dsQF9nZBY451W0SgAaD6IPKGXTRsRtq8_DqLBe-9ZhdYfIT_lpGylK9Tzu_Qy6rchbfG8oeRX1mwnsrJE/w640-h352/14.png" width="640" /></a></div><span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">------------------------------------------------------------</span></span><br /><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">「中原博立」團隊希望中港經濟爭氣,但現實上投資精力應放在較正常及較明朗化的市場,因此我們現在會投放大部分時間在調研美股上。除了</span><span lang="EN-US">Gen-AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">GLP-1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、潮流消費外,我們在美股中也可找到越來越多業績長期增長,財務穩健,而在資產配置上願意回饋股東的公司。我們已透過文章較詳細分享過一些個案,這方面會繼續,不過寫文需時,所以有時候也會藉「美股日常」分享點滴。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"></span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></span></span></span><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> ------------------------------------------------------------</span></span></span></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中原資產管理投資總監<br /></span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">執筆之時,筆者及其客户持有Deckers Outdoor (DECK)及On Holding (ONON)</span></span></span></span></div></div></div>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-86364651308923640602024-01-30T17:34:00.033+08:002024-02-01T17:40:40.008+08:0030 Jan 2024 - [美股日常] On Running鞋真係幾受歡迎 <p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">今天在Times Square的Pro Runner買了比On Cloudmonster更新款的On Cloudeclipse,個底更厚行得更舒服,不過款式就冇前者咁潮咁多色,好處是不需要面對選擇困難症!</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">Pro Runner的On鞋款式最齊,呢間新舖大大個Logo,儼如On香港專門店,當然要同店員了解下市道。佢話呢間舖好多遊客生意,除了國內遊客,也有來自星加坡、印尼等地的東南亞遊客,有些還一次過掃幾對、因抵買過當地不少。以我買這對On Cloudeclipse為例,原價HK$1590,有九折即HK$1431,但是在國內On專門店要用原價1590元人民幣買入,在香港Pro Runner買便宜19%,自然吸引很多遊客幫襯。</span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">店員也提到,有客人話去過在日本的On專門店,要排隊1小時;我先前也分享過我在某天平日下午造訪深圳萬象城,見到On專門擠滿客人,兩旁並非賣潮的HOKA及Salomon專門店被比下去。另外,On <span style="font-family: inherit;"></span>Running是瑞士品牌,有朋友最近到訪瑞士、奧地利、德國,話當地都好多人著On鞋。</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht-ZSO4InxUS9ptC7jFr1Ay-PnxlAe3D9cFpnI3qz3jf8j9OPiuYE0jpJBwMaHj9qlGu30n8g_R12zmy5lC2xERJAhukUFku9qRC_iL0dmvOC4ysIJ88jxpruCejONli2ku2XfhfP5ENbyXOjimsYdO8Ogghjxbvu7J82VY1A4RZgSwFh9syX1/s2048/17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht-ZSO4InxUS9ptC7jFr1Ay-PnxlAe3D9cFpnI3qz3jf8j9OPiuYE0jpJBwMaHj9qlGu30n8g_R12zmy5lC2xERJAhukUFku9qRC_iL0dmvOC4ysIJ88jxpruCejONli2ku2XfhfP5ENbyXOjimsYdO8Ogghjxbvu7J82VY1A4RZgSwFh9syX1/w640-h480/17.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOSaR3KbEOPW-7KtDOR5Zf9TDJbi6pzXwyvKn-1IwUF13tC1XeFnBy_bMvNMsGBOgNVhLlHW6U4U_hKq_or1ItVeezjaTxnocirBrsX6lTPvbdhc4X1R1v-koXvERvsvmuGj95LjuvLswMgiQN9J2fwvMV4Q9_F1jCuxee_UjH23IC2vat-iiB/s2048/18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOSaR3KbEOPW-7KtDOR5Zf9TDJbi6pzXwyvKn-1IwUF13tC1XeFnBy_bMvNMsGBOgNVhLlHW6U4U_hKq_or1ItVeezjaTxnocirBrsX6lTPvbdhc4X1R1v-koXvERvsvmuGj95LjuvLswMgiQN9J2fwvMV4Q9_F1jCuxee_UjH23IC2vat-iiB/w640-h480/18.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">------------------------------------------------------------</span></span><br /><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">「中原博立」團隊希望中港經濟爭氣,但現實上投資精力應放在較正常及較明朗化的市場,因此我們現在會投放大部分時間在調研美股上。除了</span><span lang="EN-US">Gen-AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">GLP-1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、潮流消費外,我們在美股中也可找到越來越多業績長期增長,財務穩健,而在資產配置上願意回饋股東的公司。我們已透過文章較詳細分享過一些個案,這方面會繼續,不過寫文需時,所以有時候也會藉「美股日常」分享點滴。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"></span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></span></span><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> ------------------------------------------------------------</span></span></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中原資產管理投資總監<br /></span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">執筆之時,筆者及其客户持有On Holding (ONON)</span></span></span></div></div></div>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-18517891214241630912024-01-29T15:31:00.013+08:002024-02-03T15:34:59.154+08:0029 Jan 2024 - 業績及股價長期上升的美國保險經紀公司 (信報「財智博立」專欄) <p><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我們正在積極於美股發掘投資機會,當中找到不少規模不小,而業務穩定的業績長期增長公司,可以分為兩類,一類增長主要靠自身業績成長,好像先前為大家介紹的美國制服租賃龍頭</span><span lang="EN-US">Cintas(CTAS)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,另一類增長則主要靠收購合併,而美國保險經紀公司便屬於這一類。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">保險經紀會和不同保險公司合作,為其客戶比較不同保險公司所提供產品的質素、財務穩健性和口碑,找尋最適合的保險產品及定價,亦會幫助客戶處理保險相關的風險管理。保險經紀不需要承擔任何承保風險,因為這是保險公司的責任,經營業務亦不需要大量資本投入,而客戶對這類服務具有較強黏性,在美國保險經紀行業的客戶留存率高達</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">90%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不少人不清楚保險經紀</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(Broker)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和保險代理</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(Agent)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的分別,其實最大的分別是保險經紀可以代表多家保險公司出售多種保險產品,而保險代理只能代表某一家保險公司出售公司的指定保險產品。另一方面,保險經紀於訂立保險契約及處理索賠等事宜上,擁有更多權限,可以代表客戶直接與保險公司展開談判;保險代理的權限相對較小,很多事情需上報公司處理。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">保險經紀於成功銷售保險產品時,可以獲得佣金收入,在美國的佣金額通常是年保費的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">15%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。另外,保險經紀亦可以獲得包括為客戶提供理賠管理等服務相關的服務費收入。當保險產品的保費越高,保險經紀的分成收入亦會越高,留意保險產品的保費,會因應保險業務覆蓋範圍的供需變化而波動,舉個例子,如果發生洪水或颶風等天災事件,保險公司將會承擔重大損失,損失幅度取決於承保標準的嚴謹程度。這些事件很大可能導致未來較少保險公司選擇承保這類風險,造成供應減少,而選擇繼續留在這個市場的保險公司,將提高保費價格以彌補重大損失,及反映供應短缺。在需求方面,即使未曾受到影響,但認知到這個風險後,更多客戶會選擇購買這類保險,供不應求的局面便形成所謂的「硬市場」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(Hard Market)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。於「硬市場」期間,保險經紀通常可以受惠,因為按年保費計劃計算的收入會增加。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">美國保險經紀行業一直都在進行整合,較大的經紀公司持續收購很多規模較小的競爭對手,亦有頭十大公司互相收購合併的消息,不過行業仍然分散,加上輕資產及現金流理想的本質,較大的經紀公司仍然有不少空間透過持續收購壯大規模。另外,收購目標除了本土外,亦開始放眼國外同業,所以可以拓展的空間仍然很大。以美國第五大保險經紀公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Brown & Brown(BRO)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">為例,收入由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2012</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年升幅近兩倍,每年複式增長</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">11.5%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,高於行業非「硬市場」下的低單位數增長,主要透過持續收購,好像於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2016</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2020</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年便進行了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">76</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">單收購,而全球第六大保險經紀公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Acrisure</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">更於這段時間完成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">462</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">單收購。於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2012</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Brown & Brown</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">每股盈利增長</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2.8</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">倍,股價上升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">5.1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">倍,股價升幅比每股盈利升幅高,可見市場於這段時間提升了保險經紀公司的估值水平。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不過,留意投資永遠是回報同風險並存,分享美國保險經紀行業的投資機會後,現在便提及潛在風險。首先,先前提及的「硬市場」未必能預測精確,可能造成盈利預期及估值水平錯配。另外,雖然財產及意外傷害保險</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(P&C</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">保險</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">對公司客戶是必需品,但若果宏觀經濟太差,客戶或因公司結業而減少,生意倒退亦會降低所需保額。還有,公司靠收購以達業績增長,收購目標不達標,會令整體增長比預期差。還有,隨著私募基金參與行業內的併購,會令保險經紀公司收購成本上升。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTOeDWWcnJ2kctN1TfUwckgOLLFZL9jsanS_Ol0QgJXNjqh8mE15VHN55wvLpjBRL0eHMUvv5lCuSgDxnx9rWDRZ_WtfG3ICWt697IjXgn-_rzccilaP8OB_eCijcbs7IeP1KSqCCqP-vgma6yoweuZUaFCX47Tdw21nA8znrPioWUkYe-JDLr/s1436/13.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1436" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTOeDWWcnJ2kctN1TfUwckgOLLFZL9jsanS_Ol0QgJXNjqh8mE15VHN55wvLpjBRL0eHMUvv5lCuSgDxnx9rWDRZ_WtfG3ICWt697IjXgn-_rzccilaP8OB_eCijcbs7IeP1KSqCCqP-vgma6yoweuZUaFCX47Tdw21nA8znrPioWUkYe-JDLr/w640-h322/13.png" width="640" /></a></span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">/</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中原資產管理投資總監<br />執筆之時,筆者及其客户未有持有上述股票</span></span><p></p>
紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-8395007213236491332024-01-28T00:02:00.006+08:002024-01-28T08:03:11.183+08:0027 Jan 2024 - [美股日常] 和香港大不同的美國便利店行業<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">美國的便利店行業,市佔率第一是7-Eleven,第二是Alimentation Couche-Tard(ATD.TO(加拿大上市)),旗下有Circle-K品牌,和香港表面沒兩樣。不過,原來美國便利店近八成都有賣汽油,其實好似大家在香港油站見到的便利店般,靠汽車入油引流。在美國汽車入油最平係Costco(COST),自己經營埋油站,第二平係Murphy USA(MUSA)。Walmart(WMT)於2015年前就同Murphy USA合作,Murphy USA亦藉此成為美國第四大便利店。第三大便利店則是Casey's(CASY),雖然汽車用油都係最主要收入,但是最特別係經營飲食有道,成為美國第五大連鎖Pizza店,最近特朗普於Iowa總統初選都走入去買Pizza做show!</span></span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">還有,美國便利店數目在過去15年停滯不前,但有六成都係個體戶,市場持續整合空間好大,ATD.TO、CASY及MUSA過往股價長期都係基本上升。</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTfRXkIxs_gq0eq1pXkZXp5dA7Ca7LDi5WzwUNBF0Gxlge1PBZ95SqXqzJtGEd4ROQGwPCx7zqSro3G6FdDPhEIxj_ZLd-PEFYZtxavvysn6Wg_RpaEzaZV74d_bK_t6P-poiclTIGo-c1QF_fA3RDQ93lmASH26Zv7XFx55hZrXsSqYbRcN4V/s812/21.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="477" data-original-width="812" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTfRXkIxs_gq0eq1pXkZXp5dA7Ca7LDi5WzwUNBF0Gxlge1PBZ95SqXqzJtGEd4ROQGwPCx7zqSro3G6FdDPhEIxj_ZLd-PEFYZtxavvysn6Wg_RpaEzaZV74d_bK_t6P-poiclTIGo-c1QF_fA3RDQ93lmASH26Zv7XFx55hZrXsSqYbRcN4V/w640-h376/21.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyW6jtSS-5SLPdjYHw-u4gGeIU58GpQzDQWRPaMNoiZ28q23aZbSR-eIH1s490plwZlCbUsAcarBFjCH5ikynxOJoIBNberJL2sv7Nr0KJ71YmIiREy9QZeksBL5PewYkshfqMJsZHV-nrh7_uACdSvWZYjSmDDVdYvx4kGhAYBw7mLyKLJBx_/s607/22.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="607" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyW6jtSS-5SLPdjYHw-u4gGeIU58GpQzDQWRPaMNoiZ28q23aZbSR-eIH1s490plwZlCbUsAcarBFjCH5ikynxOJoIBNberJL2sv7Nr0KJ71YmIiREy9QZeksBL5PewYkshfqMJsZHV-nrh7_uACdSvWZYjSmDDVdYvx4kGhAYBw7mLyKLJBx_/w640-h450/22.png" width="640" /></a></div> </span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0ZgNaIgqWp237OdTT5LxxERl3lmP-dKAJ7XBiG8dl5CzQus6nDYbc8MS3J7T_-XNGCHa47TfYAqjEOvF0Wk1W1qpa3gG0GE9lm6Ubn8w_nlLOSKOqHb9VZbrUi41eVCSEos-zDmJQ4O5oPyCM-y34hqeKMXd5268Sr8NURV077unVej-4vyMH/s1674/23.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1674" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0ZgNaIgqWp237OdTT5LxxERl3lmP-dKAJ7XBiG8dl5CzQus6nDYbc8MS3J7T_-XNGCHa47TfYAqjEOvF0Wk1W1qpa3gG0GE9lm6Ubn8w_nlLOSKOqHb9VZbrUi41eVCSEos-zDmJQ4O5oPyCM-y34hqeKMXd5268Sr8NURV077unVej-4vyMH/w640-h310/23.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>CASY 2013年至2023年股價圖</b></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaINx2E9ieWUtI4v2GaYmGIhjxcty6_wbE0EXsLTycEyVBxXUiCPNATUHZ2sWZB5-tL_FmbsqXLhmTqQyBhRxT9pmvrMfDOZBIBiwhgvShRvoTgFm2UP0CEfJp91eZFiHm8xmzJCC5HnQpuTCbsd3LOMJJT0z6AaYvbOn1gEHL51Q3GU_4JgMg/s1684/24.png" style="margin-left: auto; 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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">------------------------------------------------------------</span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">「中原博立」團隊希望中港經濟爭氣,但現實上投資精力應放在較正常及較明朗化的市場,因此我們現在會投放大部分時間在調研美股上。除了</span><span lang="EN-US">Gen-AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">GLP-1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、潮流消費外,我們在美股中也可找到越來越多業績長期增長,財務穩健,而在資產配置上願意回饋股東的公司。我們已透過文章較詳細分享過一些個案,這方面會繼續,不過寫文需時,所以有時候也會藉「美股日常」分享點滴。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> ------------------------------------------------------------</span></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中原資產管理投資總監<br /></span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">執筆之時,筆者及其客户未有持有上述股票</span></span></div></div>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-43838787947601865352024-01-25T22:35:00.010+08:002024-01-28T08:07:48.223+08:0025 Jan 2024 - [美股日常] 股價同業績長升長有的工程機械設備租賃公司<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">United Rental (URI)是美國最大的工程機械設備租賃公司,按小時、日、周或月的基礎上租賃大約4,600種不同類型的設備。我們最近對這間公司進行調研,昨天美股收市後公布業績,市場應該認為滿意,所以盤後股價升4%。 </span></span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span>工程機械設備租賃市場預計以4%的年複合增長率緩慢增長,不過前十大租賃公司的市場份額從2015年的26%增長到2022年的40%,行業正進行整合,規模越大,效率越高,和客戶及供應商的議價能力亦越高。</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">United Rental 透過收購同業不斷壯大,亦透過科技提升出租率、車隊利用率及設備管理效率。公司非常重視設備的保養,因為出租一段時間後,當設備仍然有價值時,會將其出售,以達到資金利用效率最大化。</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">2013年至2023年的十年間,公司收入上升1.9倍,純利上升5.3倍,股價亦於同期上升5.0倍,平均每年複式升幅19.7%。</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">公司面對的主要風險是宏觀經濟風險,留意其客人中,只有5%是有關住宅建築。</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtF5eRatWP6Dr_s91xWLiCia8eyxnif0462gn5UC1rvCKCa52U4jjt8x_qMhOXQlI0QpFi-7rHUxWEgqEDqQEISauzDUlfmwsBHJlykaI9CeuKBX0fdu_oYBq5fGEcXPFy7HHbbYG65_Nl57pi1f6_G2uIC61TNd4nsNwodccBicTZfB-WPnbX/s1681/31.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1681" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtF5eRatWP6Dr_s91xWLiCia8eyxnif0462gn5UC1rvCKCa52U4jjt8x_qMhOXQlI0QpFi-7rHUxWEgqEDqQEISauzDUlfmwsBHJlykaI9CeuKBX0fdu_oYBq5fGEcXPFy7HHbbYG65_Nl57pi1f6_G2uIC61TNd4nsNwodccBicTZfB-WPnbX/w640-h306/31.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>URI 2013年至2023年股價圖</b></span></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3KFjpK-NR2fjBOmmwZPIMeBhrclmrkTFZOpoWpN815F2q8awnw5jcM55eqXLhFmJHDdHIa046His6sYPG78bG0BFxrl_6aZp31oqwJz-voxMVaO_MbLYa-diPKyBHRCc3W050hF3ItllfNTdP50ENBiUfA0tvv2l0pwUfTwLXsxjquQ6p7Bdj/s1225/32.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="1225" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3KFjpK-NR2fjBOmmwZPIMeBhrclmrkTFZOpoWpN815F2q8awnw5jcM55eqXLhFmJHDdHIa046His6sYPG78bG0BFxrl_6aZp31oqwJz-voxMVaO_MbLYa-diPKyBHRCc3W050hF3ItllfNTdP50ENBiUfA0tvv2l0pwUfTwLXsxjquQ6p7Bdj/w640-h372/32.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>美國機械工程租賃市場佔有率</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYJ4Te5Y3ThK-30Q5lPv_ntnG3Bk8cs9qHuBjGtmVBi9wPzmQsgzl0IjO9xxPb7WxZ88Yi3TQbJdWMQKv2x19UHl948HkfZA1ntmTXgMigw7_7MKQFBbRoaHhvuGcwk01Ux6eHprIB9yJFd5q61kCsPILpcy6LXNQU-X3Rg14dkXIYJx8_V7xw/s1223/33.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="719" data-original-width="1223" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYJ4Te5Y3ThK-30Q5lPv_ntnG3Bk8cs9qHuBjGtmVBi9wPzmQsgzl0IjO9xxPb7WxZ88Yi3TQbJdWMQKv2x19UHl948HkfZA1ntmTXgMigw7_7MKQFBbRoaHhvuGcwk01Ux6eHprIB9yJFd5q61kCsPILpcy6LXNQU-X3Rg14dkXIYJx8_V7xw/w640-h376/33.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>URI的客戶類型 / 客戶不買而租的原因</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheko0Qr6OHuyOcCoUcc8_za-LPlyPzGGH-xtdKZ8lGJY4YWCauMhjc4WQRQ1KjosB-kKr_VhEcXu-b5kYphDv0CEtCH27bUMNU9QtCYHS0Zh6yEmak-n_WrggH_-jzSlyryVt6fX99iwYsriClMA4p2B1fZDClfNG-c5LAeQQvaB22le2K08Kw/s1219/34.png"><img border="0" data-original-height="719" data-original-width="1219" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheko0Qr6OHuyOcCoUcc8_za-LPlyPzGGH-xtdKZ8lGJY4YWCauMhjc4WQRQ1KjosB-kKr_VhEcXu-b5kYphDv0CEtCH27bUMNU9QtCYHS0Zh6yEmak-n_WrggH_-jzSlyryVt6fX99iwYsriClMA4p2B1fZDClfNG-c5LAeQQvaB22le2K08Kw/w640-h378/34.png" width="640" /></a></div></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>URI的持續增長的元素</b></span><br /></div></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs2K7hqc5mQoGwSvYD-3q4h3FgnIcwa8mI6wPkQlt1P9zlU2y44dEKQ42LV1_1rp5ea5jC08MlKgfVMWcyIxmGiPkqAsFL5OatCPQrhr7HfVYG9Lu7YSvzlmN9AnMrHgySxVJ-hgfPQ60jYeNLeYq4and9X-0HL98g530MemSuxO4o2g4yfePp/s1230/35.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="715" data-original-width="1230" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs2K7hqc5mQoGwSvYD-3q4h3FgnIcwa8mI6wPkQlt1P9zlU2y44dEKQ42LV1_1rp5ea5jC08MlKgfVMWcyIxmGiPkqAsFL5OatCPQrhr7HfVYG9Lu7YSvzlmN9AnMrHgySxVJ-hgfPQ60jYeNLeYq4and9X-0HL98g530MemSuxO4o2g4yfePp/w640-h372/35.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>URI的收購合併歷史</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">------------------------------------------------------------</span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">「中原博立」團隊希望中港經濟爭氣,但現實上投資精力應放在較正常及較明朗化的市場,因此我們現在會投放大部分時間在調研美股上。除了</span><span lang="EN-US">Gen-AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">GLP-1</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、潮流消費外,我們在美股中也可找到越來越多業績長期增長,財務穩健,而在資產配置上願意回饋股東的公司。我們已透過文章較詳細分享過一些個案,這方面會繼續,不過寫文需時,所以有時候也會藉「美股日常」分享點滴。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></span><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> ------------------------------------------------------------</span></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中原資產管理投資總監<br /></span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Aptos; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Aptos; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">執筆之時,筆者及其客户未有持有上述股票</span></span></div></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></span></div></div>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-88444362560734250952024-01-23T12:54:00.001+08:002024-01-23T12:55:17.736+08:0023 Jan 2024 - 「iMoney財經雜誌」封面故事內容分享:發掘5類成長股(主要是美股)<p><span style="font-size: large;">感謝「香港經濟日報」旗下的「iMoney財經雜誌」,2024年1月8日進行訪問,1月13日出街,並成為封面故事!現在和大家分享訪問內容,主題是發掘5類成長股,主要是美股! #中原博立<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2891" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPVzKMomsfdYQ4gkIc_NtMuCsJadkIxnBhwTaKsI9OdGPjGtRsXHtNSNbcAWF3GFmDXLK4kqauygsFnGLNm8ZofCnO2BIjTxp4dRmvKFIkh1MyywNY-Z3FIen-7LbiUU-62MGTUOIM6QQ6PSsV3k0Gmzd2Tg0Z_IoUiQFvQN0QUr_D3xVCPwtT/w462-h640/20230113%20iMoney%E5%B0%81%E9%9D%A2%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B%20P8.JPG" width="462" /></a></div></span><br /><p></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-64787939840801667142024-01-16T14:59:00.008+08:002024-01-27T22:11:46.493+08:0016 Jan 2024 - [美股日常]「生成式AI」並非泡沫概念<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">不排除有投資者會仍然認為「生成式AI」只是一個炒作概念,或因為相關股票股價升了不少,而認為已經變成一個泡沫。事實上,若果企業懂得怎樣運用「生成式AI」在適當的工序上,是可以提升生產力,這是企業營運的其中一個重要目標,是很實際的工具,下圖為最新的企業用家調研,相類的調查已出現多次,而Microsoft積極推出服務將其「金錢化」(以下是最新推出服務的新聞),可以測試到潛在用家心目中的價值。</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgirb5i0KBiinlzTnkXLq9MYW7xSHnfDwFqhglTZnRCSKspwXM4-UcoUiHEHJVP56pqFYClrYE37lfgrhPGYGDIzNcLG0fvIddbuZRtXaFdJzolFdISjlh7PiU_hE2v5KKZQPF0zMVO6n3jObceEpPMUxdPZ7megUdyY1lMBIoy5dhYnrDaJOxx/s625/13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="625" height="632" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgirb5i0KBiinlzTnkXLq9MYW7xSHnfDwFqhglTZnRCSKspwXM4-UcoUiHEHJVP56pqFYClrYE37lfgrhPGYGDIzNcLG0fvIddbuZRtXaFdJzolFdISjlh7PiU_hE2v5KKZQPF0zMVO6n3jObceEpPMUxdPZ7megUdyY1lMBIoy5dhYnrDaJOxx/w640-h632/13.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">至於股價是否已泡沫化,不排除部份股票是,但整體估值算是在高位,但並非泡沫。以帶風潮的Microsoft(MSFT)為例,股價剛創新高,為是年度(2024年6月年結)預期35倍市盈率,而過去四年年度的估值高位便是35至36倍市盈率,因此現價算貴,但非泡沫,更可說是還未反映「生成式AI」的潛力。有些進取的投資者會以下年度(2025 年6月年結)為目標,現價為下年度預期30倍市盈率,水位便出現了,當然一切看不同投資者的風險取向。</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">—————————-</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span>(From Yahoo! News) Microsoft 正式發表 Copilot Pro 服務,是一個每用戶計費、每月 20 美元的訂閱式計劃,特別是給重度用戶可以獲得最新的 ChatGPT 功能、接入部分 Microsoft 365 app 和其他整合式用途、自建專門用途的 Copilot GPT(像是健身、旅遊、烹飪等) ,同時承諾生成圖像時能更快地輸出更高品質的結果。在今天起,Copilot Pro 用戶更能在尖峰時間保持使用 GPT-4 Turbo 的優先權,讓重度依賴生成式 AI 服務的尊貴客戶可以無憂使用。</span></div></div>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-8495860479161377612024-01-15T14:55:00.001+08:002024-01-18T14:58:21.543+08:0015 Jan 2024 - 一個没有邏輯的股市 (信報「財智博立」專欄) <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">當以投資為目標買入一間公司的股票時,這間公司需要符合我們的投資邏輯,可以包括公司質素優良,商業模式有護城河,及有如業績優良、政府支持行業發展等催化劑。當這一關及格後,我們會為這間公司做估值,若果股價在合理估值以下,加上能滿足目標回報,便可以作出投資決定。若果用市盈率作為估值標準,我們會就著這間公司的基本分析而賦予一個合理市盈率,將其乘以預期每股盈利,便可算出這間公司的估值。買入股票後,即使市場沒有將公司重估至高於我們賦予的市盈率,只要其每股盈利每年皆上升,公司估值自然會水漲船高。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">以2020年尾作為分界線,很多中國公司在之前享受着一個蜜月期:全球低息環境,中國經濟持續向好,政府積極促進行業及企業成長,房價上升帶來正財富效應,中國對外關係不算差,外資積極投資中國等,以表表者騰訊為例,藉政府推動「互聯網+」政策,加上以微信滲入全國國民,再用此渠道提供及推銷自己及旗下公司產品及服務,自2012年至2020年,每股盈利上升超過8倍,每年平均複式增長32%,加上市場因看好其護城河及前景而將估值市盈率由30倍水平提升至40倍水平,股價於此八年間上升近19倍,每年平均複式增長45%。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">可是,自2021年開始,中國公司卻在經歷著另一個世界:全球利息越升越高,中國經濟受疫情影響越來越大,政府整治包括互聯網及內房等不同行業,房價下跌帶來負財富效應,中國對外關係轉差,外資從中國撤走等,很多公司的投資邏輯不復存在,內外投資者對未來信心下降造成估值下調。再以騰訊為例,政府對互聯網的態度由推動變成整頓,對遊戲行業監管持續,加上整體經濟不理想,2021年每股盈利升幅急降至低單位數,2022年更錄得多年未見的倒退,自2021年至2023年,預期每股盈利上升12%,每年平均複式增長只有3.8%,加上市場因看淡公司及行業前景而將估值市盈率由40倍水平調低到15至20倍水平,股價於此三年間下跌48%。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">既然是這樣,相信有投資者或會浮現一個問題,為什麼不在2021年初將中港股票清倉?需理解以上其實是現時知道結果後的回顧,可以非常清𥇦,但不可以當自己一早已經知道這個結果,不然便是充斥著「馬後砲思維」,可惜這卻是一個普遍的現象。需明白凡事都有一個過程,某一刻忽然來個思想大逆轉,其實是一場賭博,未必一定每次都押中注。還記得2023年初基本上全部投資者都看好中國疫後通關有利經濟增長,而美國Nasdaq指數於2022年由年初跌至年尾,當時不少評論非常擔心美國經濟衰退,此情況下,去年初又有誰來個思想大逆轉,沽清港股而轉買美股!其後一直發展,大家會漸漸發現中國經濟反彈不成,美國經濟卻非想像般會衰退,反而充滿靱性,長倉投資於去年表現如何,其實取決於其後的轉身速度,即是在事情走往相反方向的過程中,可以更早感受到最後的結果會是怎樣,而去作出相應部署,不過當局者迷,談何容易!</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">面對一個没有邏輯的中港股市,還在裡面打滾,本身便是一件没有邏輯的事情!一間優秀公司,公布一份優良業績,每股盈利升幅不比預期差,估值合理下,股價卻不升反跌,因為市場更在意現時合理的市盈率,未來會否因整體經濟轉差,或政府忽然去整頓規管而變成不合理地高,至於那個水平的市盈率才算是合理,於未知邏輯下已變成一個謎,面對着不明朗情境,除非進行本身也不明朗的投機操作,不然轉場避險也是一個正常的行為,何況全世界又不只得一個香港股市,待其變回一個有邏輯的市場,我們也會樂意積極參與!</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJrkqg95nNH-ohQXokryZaRThAPJSP92E6IVFeFVy7__en-0aj-xGtb45rwrWvME5RL9f5Dd-hJT-lnZHsLxFR7w7iEGHKpSTUilFyFYNVImHz7-Hbx3PSuftAkHlOk2Huxrg0qKddiJUBhGSAmm2G6KoimmAHhG0nhq384X-ZT2aGo6ZLEoFZ/s1024/14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="1024" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJrkqg95nNH-ohQXokryZaRThAPJSP92E6IVFeFVy7__en-0aj-xGtb45rwrWvME5RL9f5Dd-hJT-lnZHsLxFR7w7iEGHKpSTUilFyFYNVImHz7-Hbx3PSuftAkHlOk2Huxrg0qKddiJUBhGSAmm2G6KoimmAHhG0nhq384X-ZT2aGo6ZLEoFZ/w640-h426/14.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><br /></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-89852585589064976712024-01-01T14:53:00.006+08:002024-01-27T22:12:49.812+08:001 Jan 2024 - 一間股價長升長有的制服公司 (信報「財智博立」專欄) <p><span style="font-size: large;">美股有很多優質大型企業,當中有大家熟悉的名字如Coca-Cola、McDonald、Microsoft、Amazon等,但是其實亦有不少香港投資者未聽過,但股價多年來長升長有的優質公司。好像Cintas(CTAS)自2018年至今,皆在「財富500名單」內,也是Nasdaq 100成份股,2023年12中市值達到570億美元,股價自1983年上市40年上升超過560倍,平均每年複式回報超過17%,最近仍在歷史高位。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Cintas主業是企業制服和工作服供應商,但非大家想像般負責銷售制服,從事的大部份是制服租賃業務,賣的是物流和洗熨衣服等服務,美國地大物博,一間用家公司當然可以選擇買斷制服並且自行清洗、儲存及管理,但當發現成本還比租用高,制服租賃便成為一門大生意。另外,Cintas亦透過橫向收購,開拓衛生用品、設備維護、家政服務、急救及消防培訓等業務。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Cintas現時三成客戶是產品供應商,七成是服務供應商,客戶來自最多的三個行業包括醫療護理、教育和政府部門,切合社會越加服務導向的趨勢。另外,有關制服安全的法例日益加強,和用家公司越加重視外判以提升效率,皆有利制服租賃行業的持續發展。為什麼說Cintas賣的其中一樣服務是物流,這個和網購公司視物流資產或物流夥伴是重要資產可謂同一個道理。在2023年5月,Cintas有12個分發中心、461個運營點及11,500條本地運輸路線,這個規模及佈局形成競爭優勢,當獲取更多新客戶時,相應增加的路線已經不需要同步增加,營運效率自然得到提升。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Cintas是美國制服租賃市場領導者,2023年中佔總市場份額39%,第二及第三大競爭對手是Aramark和Unifirst,市場份額分別為14%和12%,遠遠落後。留意Aramark和Unifirst皆是上市公司,2023年12月中市值分別為72億美元和34億美元,遠遠落後Cintas的570億美元。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Cintas的管理層曾經於2021年表達公司的資本配置做法,首先會投資於為本身業績增值的地方,接着會考慮收購,剩下的資金便會透過股息及股份回購以回饋股東。一間公司的資本配置能夠同時重視業務發展和股東利益,其實非常重要,投資者千萬不可忽視這個重點。2023年度,公司營運現金流入16億美元,資本開支3.3億美元,收購現金支出0.5億美元,得出自由現金流入12.2億美元。於這個年度,公司用3.1億美元還債,4.5億美元派股息,4億美元回購公司股票,總共用11.6億美元,和自由現金流入金額相約,做了一個理想的資本配置示範。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Cintas於2020年美國聯儲局無限量寬前幾年,每年市盈率最高可達28至30倍,可視為市場給予的估值水平。無限量寬後,估值水平被提升到37至39倍市盈率,不過公司估值水平未受到自2022年起多次加息影響,股價於2023年尾仍創歴史新高,市場似乎已經接受這個較高嘅估值水平。不過,對中長線投資者嚟講,投資時股價能否反映安全邊際的預期目標回報,仍然會是重要考量。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">雖說公司業務穩定及具持續性,但任何生意都有風險,而公司面對最大風險是美國宏觀經濟衰退。另外,公司間中亦會進行較大規模收購,自然需面對目標收購公司的潛在風險。還有,對一間每股盈利每年增長十多百分點的公司來說,近40倍市盈率的估值包含了公司嘅規模效應及品牌溢價,市場評價轉調會帶來估值調整風險。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />執筆之時,筆者及其客户未有持有 Cintas(CTAS)</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLjsT8WldKjtu4QzZ2DaJ5wX30CQ4uf1iZHERsHNn7l3U9sxtL27XBHaVsbelYayK3p31oNB2Dk_8Xb-CrkVyCTGlp-Zt5FHCA3Q1QiyeWPPgx2hjr9BdNH95lx1SDr55P7D6Ao8tOYLsY9rETKP4HqP9j8QHM8BSfil8z0BVSOG2jEVoDkF77/s822/12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="496" data-original-width="822" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLjsT8WldKjtu4QzZ2DaJ5wX30CQ4uf1iZHERsHNn7l3U9sxtL27XBHaVsbelYayK3p31oNB2Dk_8Xb-CrkVyCTGlp-Zt5FHCA3Q1QiyeWPPgx2hjr9BdNH95lx1SDr55P7D6Ao8tOYLsY9rETKP4HqP9j8QHM8BSfil8z0BVSOG2jEVoDkF77/w640-h386/12.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-91248204202663225622023-12-18T23:48:00.012+08:002024-01-27T22:15:56.072+08:0018 Dec 2023 - 迎接AI PC元年的來臨 (信報「財智博立」專欄) <p><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Microsoft(MSFT)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">執行長</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Satya
Nadella</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">近日把中央處理器</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(CPU)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和神經處理單元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(NPU)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的組合稱為「新系統架構」,將為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Notebook PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> PC </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">用家提供由人工智慧</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(AI)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">驅動的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> Windows
11 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">體驗,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">可謂進入另一個階梯。另外,台灣</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> Notebook PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">代工龍頭,廣達董事長林百里預期,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2024 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年將會是人工智慧個人電腦</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(AI PC)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">元年,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">PC </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">市場或會出現換機潮。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">人工智慧大型語言模型</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(LLM)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">將會是個人、企業及公共三種型態共存的混合式</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,這概念與當前公有雲、私有雲及混合雲架構相通。公共大型語言模型由於未受個人資料進行訓練,自然無法提供個性化回答及符合用戶喜好。當個人大型語言模型部署於個人如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">般的智慧設備上,不但可以如公共大型語言模型透過對話回答疑問及創作內容,更能精準預測用戶需求並自行尋求解決方案。除非用戶授權,個人資料不會分享到公有雲,以保障私隱與數據安全。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">目前大家可以在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">上運作</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">應用,不需要很特殊的硬體規格,因為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">應用運算是在雲端上完成。現在提到的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,是指預期將來會有非常多</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">應用,會特別需要在終端進行</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">運算,不再透過雲端。若果</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">本身有能力完成很多複雜的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">應用,便需要搭載特別針對這個使用情境所設計的高階晶片。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">調研機構</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Canalys </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">預測,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">最初使用者將僅限於進行特定業務功能和精通技術的高級用戶,他們需要強大的硬體來運行密集的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">工作。但在未來五年,經過微調的大型語言模型</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">工具市場</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(Marketplace)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的出現,以及由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">整合定義的作業系統</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(OS)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,將推動</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的普及。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Canalys </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">預測,因為第二代</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI PC </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">與預測的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">更換週期相吻合,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">銷售將在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> 2025 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年加速,滲度率將增加至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">37%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,自此成為主流;到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> 2027 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">60% </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> PC </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">將具備</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">功能。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">何時明顯發酵的關鍵,在於終端使用者對於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">應用的接受程度及使用程度而定,若沒有出現雲端運作更有效益的殺手級應用出現,可以鑲嵌進個人生活與工作情境,讓用家找到依賴</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的理由,不然無法期待</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">可以立即爆發。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Microsoft</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">能否成為推動者?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Microsoft</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2023</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">10</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月尾宣佈,開始推出</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Windows
11 PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">作業系統的重大更新,將包含「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Copilot</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」的生成式</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">聊天機器人,為用戶操作作業系統功能,並在網路資訊的協助下回答問題,在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">競賽中加強軟體攻勢。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Microsoft </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">計劃在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> 2024 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> 6 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月推出全新的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> Windows 12 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">作業系統,並將整合大量的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">運算技術,包括語音識別、語音控制、自然語言處理、圖像識別、機器翻譯、預測性分析等,這些技術將使</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> Windows 12 </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">更加智能和易於使用,例如用戶可以使用語音控制來操作電腦,或使用自然語言處理來查找訊息。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">留意</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">AI PC</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">仍在發展初階,未來仍有很多變化,大家若有興趣可繼續留意相關新聞及相關公司動向!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">/</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中原資產管理投資總監<br />執筆之時,筆者及其客户持有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Microsoft(MSFT)</span></span></p>
紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-72874987940318087522023-12-04T12:26:00.012+08:002024-01-27T22:17:22.586+08:004 Dec 2023 - On昂跑濶步向前衝 (信報「財智博立」專欄)<p><span style="font-size: large;">因為運動及潮流品牌是投資研究目標範疇之一,所以外出時都會留意其他人的衣着及鞋款。過去一年行街或跑步,間中都會見到有人著對鞋,底部位置有好多個窿,遇到的頻率亦越來越高,而這些窿窿鞋多數是屬於新興運動品牌On(昂跑)。On是由三屆世界鐵人三項冠軍的瑞士人Olivier Bernhard和兩位朋友在2010年創立,目標是想要徹底改變跑步的形式,令跑步更愉快。品牌定位主要鎖定在「運動機能」領域,對「不跑步就不對勁」的重度跑步愛好者有強烈號召力。公司願景是「成為最優質的全球運動服裝品牌,以創新、設計和永續發展為基礎」。公司以On Holding(ONON)在2021年尾上市,除了基金股東外,知名投資者還包括「瑞士國寶」經典網球員費達拿,他亦是最重要的品牌代言人。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">On鞋建基於以標榜猶如在雲端跑步舒適感的專利「CloudTec®雲端緩衝系統」,主要於著地的時候吸收抵消垂直衝擊力,與容易導致跑步時疼痛的水平衝擊力,並且積聚動能,能夠達致「輕盈觸地、穩定起步」的效果,並減輕重量,因此跑者於得到足夠緩衝的同時,不會有笨重的感覺。On以跑步鞋起家,並持續開拓更多不同功能的市場,包括行山、訓練、網球及受眾最廣的日常生活。公司為擴濶市場寬度,也重視結合功能及潮流兩個元素,和LVMH旗下Loewe合作的聯乘鞋大受歡迎,一而再再而三推出市場,是一個很成功的示範。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">公司仍處昂跑濶步向前衝的高增長階段,2019年至2022年收入每年平均複式增長67%,毛利每年平均複式增長70%,毛利率由54%提升至56%。2023年首三季,收入按年升58%,毛利率增至59%,源於折扣銷售佔比減少、直營佔比增加、航運費用下降等。2022年純利開始錄得正數。營運現金流則於2021年錄得正數,不過在2022年再度錄得負數,主因存貨增長較多,存貨周轉天數由2021年的147天,升至2022年的180天,雖然此為整體體育品牌面對的情況,但仍然是需要注意的風險因素。幸好,負債比率於2023年9月約19%,屬偏低水平;另外,2023年首三季營運現金流已經回復錄得正數。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">On 為2026年訂下目標,全年收入將較2023年增加一倍;毛利率將提升至60%;並將調整後EBITDA利潤率由2023年的15%提高至 18% 以上。公司亦為2026年後訂下長期目標,包括收入每年增長20至25%,調整後EBITDA利潤率超過20%;另外,中國收入佔整體超過10%等。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">On Holding於2023年11月市值約9億美元,和Puma並列全球體育用品品牌第五高市值公司,落後於Nike、Lululemon、Adidas及安踏。若以2023年11月平均股價$28計算,市場預期2023年及2024年市盈率分別為48及34倍,預期2023年至2025年每股盈利平均每年複式增長40%。相對其他運動品牌的估值水平,公司若果可以維持明顯較高盈利增長,現時估值亦非不可接受。跟據On提供資料,品牌認知度在全球很多體育及潮流服飾主要市場仍然偏低,品牌仍在初步發展階段,加上仍持續開拓不同運動範疇,未來仍有很大發展空間令生意可以持續維持較高增長。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">不過,需知道消費者的口味轉變不易把握,競爭者亦隨時出現,七八年前曾經如日方中,被市場無限看好的Under Armour(UA)也在市場預期不到下業績反轉,股價大跌,因此若果以高估值買入消費品牌,大家仍需密切留意增長元素及競爭環境有否變化,無論做生意及投資市場,皆沒有理所當然。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face="Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #454545; display: inline; float: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監</span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><span face="Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #454545; display: inline; float: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">執筆之時,筆者及其客户没有持有上述股票<br /></span></span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face="Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #454545; display: inline; float: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF4tVUe7p9lNJRHR_rZpDlcODhK70bhjgAnMEkuAoFhW8poWVCAFlvZ3G72inECB_HSleuw6rORGu_bCSaBGib09uQ3c9iagkpWKzdmK6Wo14T4Of7Nsst0cr8wcIvZzRaPjq8EoIPOUC7p2W-ACYDliZWQeW3FxjVwcuIHsILGgbVI-zIBmLQ/s1160/12.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="771" data-original-width="1160" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF4tVUe7p9lNJRHR_rZpDlcODhK70bhjgAnMEkuAoFhW8poWVCAFlvZ3G72inECB_HSleuw6rORGu_bCSaBGib09uQ3c9iagkpWKzdmK6Wo14T4Of7Nsst0cr8wcIvZzRaPjq8EoIPOUC7p2W-ACYDliZWQeW3FxjVwcuIHsILGgbVI-zIBmLQ/w640-h426/12.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-64447445520502689502023-11-20T12:40:00.006+08:002023-12-15T12:43:24.836+08:0020 Nov 2023 - 申洲國際(2313)能否否極泰來?(信報「財智博立」專欄)<p><span style="font-size: large;">申洲國際(2313)是全球最大的垂直整合針織製造商,生產流程集合織布、印染、裁剪及縫製等多個工序,主要為品牌成衣商從事代工設計製造(ODM)及代工製造(OEM),四大客戶包括Nike、Adidas、Uniqlo及PUMA,佔整體收入約80%,當中Nike佔比達30%水平,其他客戶包括Lululemon、李寧、安踏、特步等。公司為Nike及Adidas的最大服裝供應商,以金額計分別佔16至18%,在PUMA的服裝供應佔比更高達40%。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">申洲國際主要產品為針織運動服及休閒服,收入佔比分別約75%及20%,在全球運動服代工生意規模最大,市佔率近年逐步提升至5%水平。雖然市場集中度整體有提升跡象,但事實上仍然很分散,始終運動服種類繁多,需要不同種類的布料、設計、針織技術、印染技術等,單一服裝供應商不易滿足多方面的要求。公司在2006年上市時休閒服收入佔比達80%,可見管理層於過去十多年致力令公司多元化及將重心轉移至運動服代工上。自2006年至2022年,公司收入上升8.3倍,純利上升10.7倍,每年複式增長分别為15.0%及16.6%,期間收入及純利未見明顯倒退,直至受新冠疫情影響下,純利於2021年按年跌34%,不過業務於2022年有所回穩,可是到今年上半年再受衝擊。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">今年上半年,公司收入、毛利及純利分別按年下跌15%、15%及10%,產能利用率下跌,主因是主要客戶正進行去庫存,源於先前因疫情造成的物流停頓後復常形成存貨積壓,加上疫情期間對運動服的高需求至疫情後的回落,供應增加及需求減少下,客戶選擇暫緩下單,這基本是紡織界面對的行業問題,需時時間消化。以Nike為例,存貨週轉天數由疫情前<a style="background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e943f; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; transition: color 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">的</a>90至100天水平,增加至疫情後的100至110天水平,2023年5月時仍為107天,不過管理層似乎已現此為新正常情況(New Normal),並結束去庫存階段,包括申洲國際管理層等不同渠道得悉Nike下單已正常化,相信對公司業績有正面影響。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">申洲國際自上市後,毛利率大部份時間處於30%附近水平,不過自2021年下半年大跌至19.4%後,一直只能徘徊在22%附近水平,原因包括期間先後受到中國及越南工廠因疫情停產、客戶去庫存、原材料成本上漲、產能利用率下降等。反觀在香港上市而運動服代工生意規模僅次於公司的晶苑國際(2232),毛利率於同時期仍保持穩定,源於垂直整合的申洲國際包括布料業務,此部份資本投資相對較大,營運槓桿較高,因此產能利用率下降對毛利率的負面影響亦較大。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">申洲國際管理層最近透露,有信心產能利用率將持續回升,下年尾會回復高水平,一來主要品牌客戶訂單恢復,雖然主力於中國營銷的李寧(2331)最近公布一些不理想業績數據,其他中國體育品牌於最近雙十一銷售表現據聞差於預期,但中國客戶佔公司收入低於10%,影響相對較低。反而Nike最新業績提到中國業務表現理想,加上主力在中國銷售Nike及Adidas等國際體育品牌產品的寶勝(3813)及滔搏(6110)於今年第二季業績理想,中國消費者有重投國際體育品牌的趨勢。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">另外,申洲國際的東南亞工廠已通過 Lululemon 驗廠,去年出貨訂單金額 4,300 萬美金,預期今年金額可翻倍。Lululemon業績近年持續理想,中國業務收入按年增長達60%水平,有機會成為公司未來業績催化劑。隨著國際品牌客戶完成去庫存、產能利用率上升、原材料成本壓力舒緩等,申洲國際有望逐步重返疫情前的高水平,成為盈利增來的一大推動力。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />執筆之時,筆者及其客户没有持有上述股票<br /></span></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-22313497692939936922023-11-08T20:11:00.004+08:002024-01-27T22:18:16.820+08:008 Nov 2023 - 從奢侈品牌最新業績窺探經濟情況 (信報「財智博立」專欄)<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">擁有奢侈品牌的歐洲集團在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">10</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月相繼公布季度收入,我們可以從中窺探不同級數的奢侈品在不同地方的銷售情況,亦可藉此了解最新經濟景況的部份併圖。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">LVMH(MC.PA)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">最先公布業績,今年首三季收入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以固定匯率計算,以下皆是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按年升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">14%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,不過第三季按年升幅只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">9%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,明顯比上半年回落。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">LVMH</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">旗下有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">70</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">多個品牌,涵蓋不同級數的奢侈品,而公司將這些品牌分為五大業務群,除了最受惠旅遊復甦包括</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">DFS</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Selective Retailing</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">外,其他業務群的第三季收入按年升幅皆低於首三季,當中</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Wines
& Spirits</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的第三季收入更<a name="_Hlk149478697">按年下跌</a></span><span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">14%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,比首三季的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">7%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按年跌幅更大。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">再看看不同地方的業績,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">LVMH</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">將全球業務分為四大區域,美國<a name="_Hlk149480536">第三季收入按年升幅</a>只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,<a name="_Hlk149480562">和首三季的</a></span><span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">3%</span></span><span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按年升幅相約,持續低迷</span></span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。美國業務由去年高增長至今年第二季開始明顯趨淡,是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">LVMH</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">股價轉弱的其中一個原因,此形勢未見改善。今年第二季整體業績靠中國疫後復常推動,中國業務佔比較重的亞洲</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不計日本</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第三季收入按年升幅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">11%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,比首三季的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">19%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按年升幅明顯回落,管理層於公布業績時不斷發表看好中國言論,似乎也敵不過中國的宏觀經濟情況。歐洲第三季收入按年升幅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">7%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,比首三季的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">16%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按年升幅也回落不少,市場似乎有點意料之外,我在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">7</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月尾至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">8</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月初曾造訪米蘭及巴黎,名店區也算人頭湧湧,相信遊客貢獻不少,知名品牌還需排隊甚至預先抽簽登記才可入內購物,不過看</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Hermès</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">業績後也算解說到。幸好仍有好消息,日本第三季收入按年升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">30%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,和首三季的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">31%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按年升幅相約,持續強勁,不過收入佔比只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">7%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,影響相對不大。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a name="_Hlk149482347"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Hermès</span></a><span></span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">也接力公布業績,今年首三季收入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以固定匯率計算,以下皆是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按年升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">22%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,不過第三季按年升幅只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">16%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,明顯比上半年回落。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Hermès</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">絕大部份收入源自單一品牌,和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">LVMH</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不同的是,其整體業績可以作為最頂級奢侈品代表。看看其不同地方的業績,美國、歐洲及日本的第三季收入分別按年升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">20%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">18%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">24%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,和首三季的按年升幅相約,持續強勁,可見近三個區域最有消費能力的一群仍肯付錢買最頂級奢侈品,拿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">LVMH</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">業績作比較,這情況並不一定在非最頂級奢侈品出現。再看中國業務佔比較重的亞洲</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不計日本</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第三季收入按年升幅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">10%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,比首三季的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">21%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按年升幅明顯回落,可見雖然相信中國的貧富懸殊依然存在,但最有消費能力的一群因各種原因連最頂級奢侈品也買少了,原因可包括疫後消費變得務實,現時大環境更要低調,甚或因生意不景氣而變得負擔不起。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 37.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">接著,主力品牌包括</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Gucci</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Saint Laurent</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Bottega Veneta</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Kering</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">也公布業績,今年第三季收入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以固定匯率計算,以下皆是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按年下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">9%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,主力品牌皆錄得跌幅,在奢侈品行業內持續較弱,其實用來分析奢侈品情況已不太具代表性。即管也看看其不同地方的業績,主場西歐<a name="_Hlk149484013">第三季零售收入</a>錄得按年跌幅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">9%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,美國跌幅更達</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">21%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,亞太</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不計日本</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有輕微的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">升幅,不過日本第三季零售收入按年增幅仍可高達</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">28%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,可見日本在本土經濟及旅遊<a name="_Hlk149484143">復</a>常帶動下,整體奢侈品消費復甦非常強勁。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">/</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中原資產管理投資總監<br />執筆之時,中原博立新世代增長基金持有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Hermès</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">LVMH</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr3deX99GLWYS7NchFnR3QSaCoaC18i17GigTqfF0_wjuNQkJOpiHAsS9_DNyaoiW3jBlq2s0WzdGx6TeWfFUuBY0sb12y3rD1mIHeznPNWygV65s9NN9_WKOAgCt144mLJ8NNN59NwAoBQk76SAX2uwa8OYTqGFYJorRXuf8cpEvWATYcT9B6/s1600/13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1106" data-original-width="1600" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr3deX99GLWYS7NchFnR3QSaCoaC18i17GigTqfF0_wjuNQkJOpiHAsS9_DNyaoiW3jBlq2s0WzdGx6TeWfFUuBY0sb12y3rD1mIHeznPNWygV65s9NN9_WKOAgCt144mLJ8NNN59NwAoBQk76SAX2uwa8OYTqGFYJorRXuf8cpEvWATYcT9B6/w640-h442/13.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-78398906754262042232023-11-04T19:47:00.016+08:002024-01-27T22:18:52.444+08:004 Nov 2023 - 對GLP-1減肥藥近月推低零食快餐股股價的看法<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">GLP-1糖尿及減肥藥物全球需求殷切,主力供應藥企Novo Nordisk(NVO)及Eli Lilly(LLY)業績及股價雙雙受惠。事實上,GLP-1在股市的影響力已不只是在醫藥行業,近月市場擔心若其減肥用途被廣泛使用,因為GLP-1有抑制對致肥食物胃口的作用,將影響未來零食及快餐的需求,加上市場對息口上升拉低估值水平的恐懼,因此可見到汽水股(KO、PEP)、零食股(HSY、MDLZ)及快餐股(MCD、YUM)等股價最近都有一段較差的時間,而這些公司在最近公布業績時亦有回應GLP-1有否影響生意的問題。</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mondelez(MDLZ)是全球最主要的零食公司之一,旗下品牌包括Cadbury吉百利、Oreo、Ritz等,在最近公布業績時,管理層主動回覆關於GLP-1對零食銷售影響的問題,我們認為是最為認真的,可作參考,節錄如下 </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">「從長遠來看,即使採用最樂觀的預測,我們認為對我們所在的類別產品銷量的影響將非常有限。大約在未來十年內,影響將只有銷量的0.5%至1%,是可以控制的範圍,我們將有足夠時間去調整和準備應對任何變化。」</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">「全球肥胖率差異很大,而我們的銷售中有75%來自美國以外的地區,而這些國家的平均BMI大幅低於美國,因此對我們的影響程度是最低的。」</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">「我們已經有20%的銷售來自於每份少於200卡路里的零食。」</span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">「對於早餐場合,我們已經有更健康的替代品,例如belVita,這是一種替代性零食,或者一些零食棒,這些都是餐食替代品,非常適合GLP-1藥物使用者的飲食。」</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;">我們也認同其管理層的觀點,加上GLP-1正面對供應問題,況且藥物價錢仍偏昂貴,美國醫保未必可以大量涵蓋,相信離高滲透率仍然有一段很長的時間。加上過往多年,全球一直宣揚減少食用不健康食物的文化,可是我們仍見到主要品牌的汽水、零食及快餐生意越來越好,而過去兩年持續加價也對銷量影響不大,可見這些生意的韌性。</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOlG_p_ppS_y5Qz9sC1Zu5UNuXewrr7349uuG7joZIdJtBMF-UbQhMWII496_z1jL4OKYOpiVQN7CSD8Nz893o-YfiBXNRTER4JPpxEVY8SO45vWR41-U9dw34IAcsfpOluJd8Ebb1mcCYNwhHvVSHVhpz3Bbm3ii7gwemN-v8s6xhWRRwOZ-k/s1809/13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="1809" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOlG_p_ppS_y5Qz9sC1Zu5UNuXewrr7349uuG7joZIdJtBMF-UbQhMWII496_z1jL4OKYOpiVQN7CSD8Nz893o-YfiBXNRTER4JPpxEVY8SO45vWR41-U9dw34IAcsfpOluJd8Ebb1mcCYNwhHvVSHVhpz3Bbm3ii7gwemN-v8s6xhWRRwOZ-k/w640-h200/13.png" width="640" /></a></div></span></div></div>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-7110724840621841532023-10-26T17:36:00.003+08:002023-11-08T17:51:29.962+08:0026 Oct 2023 - 能量飲品的投資機會與風險 (信報「財智博立」專欄)<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">能量飲品可以提高警覺性、能量和注意力,絕大部份都會有咖啡因。咖啡因是最強的興奮劑之一,導致心肌細胞內釋放出大量的鈣,會對心臟使用氧氣的能力產生影響,亦可能會引致心律不整,過量咖啡因有可能會出現心悸、頭暈、拉肚子等副作用。美國食品藥物管理局(FDA)於2019年表示,有關飲用能量飲品的死亡個案不一定與能量飲品有直接關係,還有其他多種因素,包括死者本身的健康狀況,以及其所服用的藥物等。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">提起能量飲品,就會想起「送你一對翼」的Redbull,不過呢個品牌怎樣受歡迎,同投資者都没有關係,因為公司都未有上市!不過,能量飲品又怎會只一個品牌!根據2021年一份市場調查,全球能量飲品收入最高的三甲分別為Red Bull、Monster(MNST)及PepsiCo(PEP),市佔率分別為44%、33%同9%。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">北美佔全球能量飲品銷量近半,根據2023年5月的一份尼爾森調查公司數據,Monster及Redbull在美國能量飲品的市佔率分別為37.4%及35.1%,可算是寡頭壟斷,一二位置時有更替;另外,新勢力Celsius(CELH)佔5.6%,PepsiCo則被超前佔5.3%。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">在2021年,Redbull及Monster收入按年分别升24%及21%,而Celsius收入按年升140%。當年,Monster及Celsius收入分別為55.4億美元及3.1億美元,有近18倍差距。到2022年,Monster收入按年升14%至63.1億美元,Celsius收入則按年升108%至6.5億美元,兩者收入差距已縮窄至約10倍。而根據市場預測,Monster及Celsius在2023年的收入增長分別是90%及14%,兩者收入差距將進一步縮窄至約6倍,Celsius市佔率正逐步邁向雙位數。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Monster的重要時刻相信是Coca-Cola(KO)於2015年中入股,當時以21.5億美元購入16.7%股權,其後因公司回購,股權變相增加至19.3%,最重要是Coca-Cola利用其美國及全球的分銷網絡幫助Monster能量飲品加快推銷至全世界,收入及盈利至今連續增長8年。Monster自Coca-Cola入股後,股價至2023年中高位8年間上升超過160%,平均每年複式增長約13%。公司每股盈利由2015年至2022年間上升133%,平均每年複式增長約13%,不過公司市盈率<a style="background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e943f; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; transition: color 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">於期間</a>每年最高達35至40倍水平,以盈利增速算,品牌溢價高企,於高息環境持續下,存在估值下降風險,投資者需要留意。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">2022年8月,PepsiCo入股Celsius 8.5%股權,並利用自身美國及全球的分銷網絡幫助Celsius能量飲品加快推銷,和Coca-Cola於2015年入股Monster的策略類同。不過,PepsiCo在能量飲品市場發展比Coca-Cola更理想,透過自己發展及收購其他品牌如Rockstar,現時為全球市場市佔率三哥,雖然比寡頭壟斷的兩個品牌較為落後。2023年,Celsius已經利用PepsiCo在美國的銷售網絡帶來<a style="background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e943f; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; transition: color 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">持續高</a>增長,管理層認為這方面的紅利仍然未用盡,在2024年會開始透過PepsiCo加強拓展國際市場,可以見到Celsius的市場增長空間仍然很大。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Monster的純利率已穩定在22至24%水平,這是Celsius的長期目標,不過短期目標仍是盡快擴大市場份額,會暫時犧牲盈利水平。市場預期Celsius在2023年可以恢復盈利,未來兩年盈利會以平均每年40%以上增長,但是純利率會再較低的11至12%水平。Celsius的股價自2020年開始受市場追捧,在過去三年升了6.8倍。於2023年10月,公司的2023年及2024年預期市盈率分別高達100倍及70倍,高估值為風險所在,亦會反映在股價較大的波動上。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">執筆之時,授權客戶持有Coca-Cola(KO)及PepsiCo(PE) ;中原博立新世代增長基金持有Celsius(CELH)</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimLwFu5I9J1GVPOXLSHdk8DFiVmqI4SJWia-80mFAgHRAEloIVm6iOb5H1dwsJJxy-0dEo5Y99Hf62SftS3ftd5Cz-xxQl_4-hHkDjFROsMp_g_VNQLRqnj0VAeyU71YwFlungMeNMGciM84bK8BYkxslsHg70O_pD2l4vtEskZicp1rAjBL9R/s1160/12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="1160" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimLwFu5I9J1GVPOXLSHdk8DFiVmqI4SJWia-80mFAgHRAEloIVm6iOb5H1dwsJJxy-0dEo5Y99Hf62SftS3ftd5Cz-xxQl_4-hHkDjFROsMp_g_VNQLRqnj0VAeyU71YwFlungMeNMGciM84bK8BYkxslsHg70O_pD2l4vtEskZicp1rAjBL9R/w640-h384/12.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-61123710563637707572023-10-10T17:53:00.006+08:002023-11-08T17:54:27.034+08:0010 Oct 2023 - 「高息股」不只看息率高低 (信報「財智博立」專欄)<p><span style="font-size: large;">今天談談現在股票投資者最有興趣的「高息股」,傳媒很多時簡化其定義,即是現時息率夠高的便是「高息股」,而息率則是去年度全年每股派息除以現時股價。不過,歷史不一定重覆,投資者應該要問,公司於下一年度全年每股派息會是相同,上升還是下跌?因為不同答案會影響回報及估值。另外,公司根據那些指標去決定每股派息多少,會否跟隨業績指標(如每股盈利)升跌?盈利下跌,甚至某年度錄得虧損時,有沒有能力維持每股派息不變?</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">大部份公司的派息政策會基於一個派息比率,即每股盈利有多少百份比會用來派息,照顧投資者的的管理層會向投資者清楚交代一個目標派息比率,不過每股派息的金額會隨公司盈利升跌,投資者若在收息回報上不想失去預算,便需研究及理解公司盈利於未來倒退的可能性,因為盈利倒退會令目標收息回報降低。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">另外,有些公司會盡量維持每股派息在一個固定銀碼,甚至令到每股派息只升不跌,最差也只是維持去年度水平,管理層未必會對此作出承諾,但若果公司長時間這樣做,便會令投資者建立了這個正面預期,這些公司在美國會被稱為「股息貴族」。不過,印象中在香港長期能做到這個成就的公司不多,比較多人知道的會是長江基建(1038)及大型香港地產商,不過每股基本派息超過二十年未有倒退的新鴻基地產(16)也行將脱離貴族身份,最近宣佈未來將緊守股息政策,分派基礎溢利的40%至50%為股息,代表每股派息未來將有機向下,令長期投資者在計算未來回報時失預算,業績公布翌日股價便大跌約一成。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">固定銀碼的每股派息會受到投資者歡迎,因為對股息回報有數得計,以較冷門的香港中小型印刷公司鴻興印刷(450)為例,公司在2018及2019年每股派息$0.10,2020至2022年每股派息增加至$0.13,假設於2023年年中均價$1.0買入,每年收息回報是13%,是一個非常吸引的息率,不過投資者需要理解公司是否可以在未來維持每股派息不低於$0.13的能力,而我們可以看幾個指標。先看公司近四年度派息比率皆超過100%,近兩年度平均達200%,2018年更是蝕錢派息,若果看更實際的自由現金流,近數年派息亦為自由現金流的150%以上,即公司正用現金儲備去派息,那麼便需要看看公司這方面有多大能耐。鴻興印刷在2022年尾現金為2022年全年派息的10.6倍,加上2022年尾的負債比率只有8%,假設公司未來業績平平穩穩,亦有能力用現金儲備於未來多年維持每股派息至少在$0.13水平。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">不過,長期用現金儲備去支援派息,始終令人擔心,現在再看看另一個例子,迪生創建(113)業績近年呈倒退,但股價表現卻不錯,公司近五年每股基本派息皆為$0.35,派息比率平均在50%水平,近數年只用上自由現金流30%去派息,其實還有足夠空間增加每股派息。公司在2023年3月年度尾現金為當年度全年派息的23.7倍,若只計淨現金也有16.4倍,不計租賃負債的負債比率為合理的30%,若果某天有需要用現金儲備維持每股派息水平,其實亦卓卓有餘。雖然,我們無法肯定公司的未來派息政策會否改變,管理層的意向轉變會是一個風險,但迪生創建於未來維持每股派息不倒退的能力明顯比鴻興印刷强。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />執筆之時,筆者及客户投有持有上述股票</span></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-17250475311428325392023-10-05T19:30:00.005+08:002023-10-06T00:10:00.853+08:005 Oct 2023 - 衡量公司維持固定每股派息的能力<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上篇文章</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://redmonkeyblog.blogspot.com/2023/09/27-sep-2023.html">按此</a>重溫</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">提到,固定銀碼的每股派息會受到投資者歡迎,因為對股息回報有數得計,並以較冷門的香港中小型印刷公司鴻興印刷</span><span lang="EN-US">(450)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">為例子,公司在</span><span lang="EN-US">2018</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">及</span><span lang="EN-US">2019</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年每股派息</span><span lang="EN-US">$0.10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年每股派息增加至</span><span lang="EN-US">$0.13</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,假設於</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年年中均價</span><span lang="EN-US">$1.0</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">買入,每年收息回報是</span><span lang="EN-US">13%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,是一個非常吸引的息率。不過,投資者需要理解公司是否可以在未來維持每股派息不低於</span><span lang="EN-US">$0.13</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的能力,而我們可以看幾個指標去確認這個可能性高低。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">先看鴻興印刷最近五年派息比率,近四年派息比率皆超過</span><span lang="EN-US">100%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,近兩年平均更高達</span><span lang="EN-US">200%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,而</span><span lang="EN-US">2018</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年則是蝕錢派息,若果看更實際的自由現金流,近數年派息亦為自由現金流的</span><span lang="EN-US">150%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上,即公司是用現金儲備去支援派息,這情況下便需要看看公司這方面有多少能耐。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">鴻興印刷在</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年尾現金水平,為</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年全年派息的</span><span lang="EN-US">10.6</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倍,加上</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年尾的負債比率只有</span><span lang="EN-US">8%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,假設公司未來業績平平穩穩,其實有能力用現金儲備於未來多年維持每股派息至少在</span><span lang="EN-US">$0.13</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">水平。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不過,長期用現金儲備去支援派息,始終令人擔心,現在再看看另一個例子,迪生創建</span><span lang="EN-US">(113)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">從事中高檔消費品零售,業績近年呈倒退,但股價表現卻不錯。不計特別股息,公司近五年每股派息皆為</span><span lang="EN-US">$0.35</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,派息比率平均在</span><span lang="EN-US">50%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">水平,近數年只用上自由現金流</span><span lang="EN-US">30%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">去派息,其實</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">甚至還有足夠空間去增加每股派息。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">迪生創建在</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月年結,當時現金為當年度全年派息的</span><span lang="EN-US">23.7</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倍,若只計淨現金也有</span><span lang="EN-US">16.4</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倍,不計租賃負債的負債比率在</span><span lang="EN-US">30%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">合理水平,若果某天有需要用現金儲備維持每股派息水平,其實亦綽綽有餘。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">雖然,我們無法肯定公司的未來派息政策會否改變,管理層的意向轉變會是一個風險,但迪生創建於未來維持每股派息不倒退的能力明顯比鴻興印刷强。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span>簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />執筆之時,筆者管理投資組合没有及持有上述股票</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG2xO0o8dC9fBehDFfPSMvpmtwa6xk4Ar1Ow7rrUVWHC_IwBUWBP0BtN0XI_nVdtSa-8ELZS-FOnsCrikDxJoaR3cj-o46y1HMZrGa7w0C6Qo35A5V60YKfaGdXEtMz1p-WXlsDfNemCv3Lx4bUsfiKZFMeTSdd_qQO4zSxOSz6P_HHftiVWIQ/s906/13.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="535" data-original-width="906" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG2xO0o8dC9fBehDFfPSMvpmtwa6xk4Ar1Ow7rrUVWHC_IwBUWBP0BtN0XI_nVdtSa-8ELZS-FOnsCrikDxJoaR3cj-o46y1HMZrGa7w0C6Qo35A5V60YKfaGdXEtMz1p-WXlsDfNemCv3Lx4bUsfiKZFMeTSdd_qQO4zSxOSz6P_HHftiVWIQ/w640-h378/13.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFLwVR4RGsdnaM2430ARfWxUW9NoHao0r6YaWKZLh4PEdX-eC5rncVZ5GOcVocc-dNiDXszXkrhyphenhyphenQdLWpAWYWKCy-LNW42AHFkHoZDwByUn9P1IkYLOvbpvWpj54zuYxEzEEXCOHGGhT3WtZo5DbyEbyNqOyMcAfOu5ZVDHunLcdlndxon1tq5/s600/14.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="600" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFLwVR4RGsdnaM2430ARfWxUW9NoHao0r6YaWKZLh4PEdX-eC5rncVZ5GOcVocc-dNiDXszXkrhyphenhyphenQdLWpAWYWKCy-LNW42AHFkHoZDwByUn9P1IkYLOvbpvWpj54zuYxEzEEXCOHGGhT3WtZo5DbyEbyNqOyMcAfOu5ZVDHunLcdlndxon1tq5/w640-h490/14.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US"></span><p></p>
紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-22120805121242984742023-09-29T17:01:00.002+08:002024-01-27T22:20:13.134+08:0029 Sep 2023 - Nike的存貨問題是否否極泰來?<p><span style="font-size: large;">Nike(NKE)在過往一個月股價跌得算慘烈,由$110跌到$90,也不提2021年曾高見約$180,始終是一個很多人仍在付錢消費的大牌子。原因可以很多,當中投資者關心體育用品股疫情後的存貨問題,NKE亦沒兩樣。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">分析存貨要看Inventory Turnover,因為要考量存貨同生意量的關係,Nike的年度Inventory Turnover自疫情後一直處110天水平,比過往的90天水平高。生意好損益表理想時,市場較少注意資產負債表(包括存貨),但當生意自2021年尾失去上升動力並倒退時,一看季度Inventory Turnover皆在110天水平,比過去明顯高時,便會擔心存貨此風險會否令公司雪上加霜。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Nike剛公布季度業績,股價盤後反彈7%,當中強調Inventory按年少10%,看季度Inventory Turnover,也比去年同時間少了8.3天,並連續三季下降,算是一個好現象,不過仍處較高的110天水平。110天水平看似不算太高,但比長時間水平高是事實,不知某天市場會否視之為新常態,或許待損益表重現增長時,市場對存貨的關注度及要求才會降低。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlo0sdIx7fvnrdM-vL9vlpsmvtLMI2CyfzWI3EsmF_mPFW_F7H2R8rVB71b3hxKgqO5DpndDlAADIeMe1jfpcys8v2p5UvQLe4zPhCJ8uzl-yhHkE-JOp_yyx4tbdj5xlspZWxbWFxnnQD78C2SqSTvHRZF0dBvwAjUBCdOAyuLqTqXl5UtWZD/s851/14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="851" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlo0sdIx7fvnrdM-vL9vlpsmvtLMI2CyfzWI3EsmF_mPFW_F7H2R8rVB71b3hxKgqO5DpndDlAADIeMe1jfpcys8v2p5UvQLe4zPhCJ8uzl-yhHkE-JOp_yyx4tbdj5xlspZWxbWFxnnQD78C2SqSTvHRZF0dBvwAjUBCdOAyuLqTqXl5UtWZD/w640-h398/14.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #454545; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監</span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #454545; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">執筆之時,筆者及博立客戶沒有持有上述股票</span></span></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10180651.post-2063999619856526252023-09-27T14:25:00.006+08:002023-09-27T14:25:36.049+08:0027 Sep 2023 - 兩類「高息股票」的機遇與風險<p><span style="font-size: large;">上篇文章(<a href="https://redmonkeyblog.blogspot.com/2023/09/26-sep-2023.html"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e943f; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; transition: color 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">按此</span></a>重溫)提到投資「高息股票」是一門學問,不只是看息率那麼簡單。大部份公司的派息政策會基於一個派息比率,即每股盈利有多少百份比會用來派息,好的管理層會向投資者清楚交代一個目標派息比率,不過每股派息的金額會隨公司盈利升跌,投資者若在收息回報上不想失去預算,便需研究及理解公司盈利於未來倒退的可能性,因為盈利倒退會令目標收息回報降低。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">另外,有些公司會盡量維持每股派息在一個固定銀碼,甚至令到每股派息只升不跌,最差也只是維持去年度水平,管理層未必會對此作出承諾,但若果公司長時間這樣做,便會令投資者建立了這個正面預期,這些公司在美國會被稱為「股息貴族」。不過,印象中在香港長期能做到這個成就,只會想起長江基建(1038)。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">固定銀碼的每股派息會受到投資者歡迎,因為對股息回報有數得計,以較冷門的香港中小型印刷公司鴻興印刷(450)為例,公司在2018及2019年每股派息$0.10,2020至2022年每股派息增加至$0.13,假設以$1.0買入,每年收息回報是13%,是一個非常吸引的息率,不過如上篇文章(<a href="https://redmonkeyblog.blogspot.com/2023/09/26-sep-2023.html"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e943f; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; transition: color 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">按此</span></a>重溫)提到,投資者需要理解公司是否可以在未來維持每股派息不低於$0.13的能力,至於怎樣去判斷,容後再談。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">中國移動(941)可算是現時市場最受歡迎的「高息股票」之一,也有一定道理。公司以前的派息比率長期維持在50%,不過管理層於數年前開始重視股東回報,並訂下目標在2023年前逐步提升派息比率不低於70%。另一方面,公司自2019年盈利恢復增長至今,主因5G由投資期轉入收成期,而預期有關6G的重大資本投入最快也在數年後,公司盈利持續增長為合理期望,而因2022年A股上市增發股份攤薄每股盈利的情況,因公司健康資產負債表及自由現金流而預期不會在短期再發生。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">一間公司的每股盈利及派息比率正在上升,即兩者相乘的每股派息銀碼也在上升,正是「高息股票」的最理想情況,只要買入價所反映的息率相對市場上無風險利率(如定期存款或美國國債)有足夠溢價,市場便會用行動支持其股價。</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">簡志健,持證監會持牌人士,博立聯合創辦人/中原資產管理投資總監<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />執筆之時,筆者管理投資組合及基金持有中國移動(941)</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; font-family: Hind, Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 20px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPJovawlHd6foaPGiiKvIieAAnfaelMLHD99Yw79bZ8Gez2UOQE2zyqcJPdhr92BVrV3GaoS7pZNiVJRQibKvdQ4x3CRCHorJemG2YWwANDB5G7vkk9zC2EZhowTZ_qKul9ust5A0JEfPn-I4cTEedqrJhekR3GfNBWmT92NH4bfBaIuU_4u77/s1200/13.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1200" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPJovawlHd6foaPGiiKvIieAAnfaelMLHD99Yw79bZ8Gez2UOQE2zyqcJPdhr92BVrV3GaoS7pZNiVJRQibKvdQ4x3CRCHorJemG2YWwANDB5G7vkk9zC2EZhowTZ_qKul9ust5A0JEfPn-I4cTEedqrJhekR3GfNBWmT92NH4bfBaIuU_4u77/w640-h426/13.jpeg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>紅猴http://www.blogger.com/profile/08992905694987141361noreply@blogger.com0