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Monday, October 16, 2006

16 Oct 2006 - 上週突破52週新高股票慨談！

(現在大家可登入 www.redmonkey.hk 便可瀏覽「紅猴股評」)

筆者的投資組合以$1.84買入富士高(927)；另外，金屬價格止跌回升，有興趣「人棄我敢」的可買入中國鋁業(2600)。以下為上週突破52週新高股票慨談

匯豐控股(5)
股價再破新高，筆者的目標價是$175

一批中國消費股
永恩國際(210)、宜進利(304)、寶姿(589)、恆安國際(1044)、蒙牛乳業(2319)、百盛商業(3368)，新宇亨得利(3389)自年中回落後，上週發力再創新高，中國消費股強勢再現！

浩倫農業(1073)
浩倫農業(1073)忽然急升破新高，相類股超大現代農業(682)自買入資源股偏離主業後低企，但自9月初低位回升，從$4升回$5，「偏離主業」事件淡化後，有力回試更高位，現價不貴

(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)
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13 comments:

  1. Anonymous9:25 AM

    5仔175蚊,如果是,相信也不會是今年目標吧,
    明年今日,確是可能的呢.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Wheel9:56 AM

    請問你個股票列表是怎樣做的?是否一定要scan個excel table做jpeg才可放在blog space?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous1:14 PM

    Michael,

    I want to buy 210, 2319, 1044, what price good to buy?

    Thanks!!
    LEO

    ReplyDelete
  4. 紅猴10:45 PM

    sdwin,

    HSBC(5)升至$175不會是短期的事，相信要一至兩年時間，若下年中前見此價未必沒可能，但那時大市會進入瘋狂狀態，2007年10月有可能又會是10年一度的股災！

    wheel,

    不知可否attach excel table，可以的話或許很複雜，所以筆者attach jpeg；其實也不需scan，只是copy table然後paste用小畫家，save as jpeg便是

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous11:00 PM

    呵呵,我倒覺得,個個都覺得係股災,反而不
    會是股災呢!

    ReplyDelete
  6. 紅猴11:06 PM

    LEO,

    以2007年每股預期盈利並PE30計(進取股價)，目標價為

    210 - $8.4
    2319 - $15.6 (現價太貴！你要非常進取才可於現價買入！)
    1044 - $19.8

    但筆者建議自設Margin of Safety，即比目標價折讓某個百分比，如20%或30%才買入分較安全，因為增長股增長少了便會劇跌

    Redmonkey

    ReplyDelete
  7. 紅猴11:13 PM

    sdwin,

    Most people cannot feel that when the bubble comes as they are confused by the atmophere. Easier said than done!

    Redmonkey

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous2:34 PM

    其他的我無研究,不過1044因我本身有,所以
    有D留意,現價係2005PE的43倍.但佢上半年有6成幾增長.如果下半年增長放緩,當佢平均
    得5成增長,2007再放緩,得番3成增長,如果
    30倍PE的話,都應該係24-5蚊左右.所以
    MICHAEL兄的2007 30倍PE係19.8,唔知
    點計出來的,可否請教一下呢?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous8:36 PM

    michael,
    have been following all stocks on your portfolio and they have been doing very well. interesting insights being presented on your blog.

    when i saw the cost column of your portfolio, does that include commission costs or just the entry price?

    also, does the portfolio applies a buy and hold strategy? Have noticed that no selling activity is done.

    ReplyDelete
  10. 紅猴9:19 PM

    sdwin,

    I am referring to the average profit forecast from e-finet.com (paid service). Originally, the expected 2007 EPS is $0.66. When PE is 30, the forecast price is $19.8.

    However, I have just checked it again and the expected 2007 EPS has been increased to $0.77 due to more optimistic views from analysts. Therefore, the revised forecast price should be $23.1, which is closer to your expected price!

    Redmonkey

    ReplyDelete
  11. 紅猴9:24 PM

    wil,

    You are right. For simplicity, the transaction cost (mainly the commission) is not included.

    And, I like using buy and hold strategy as I am too busy to trade the stock frequently. There is not many selling activities in the recent monhts in order to take advantage the market appreciation. Nevertheless, I reserve the rights to sell some or even most of my stocks when circumstance changes.

    Redmonkey

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous9:27 PM

    thx very much, now I know the reason, hehe, I dont have the paid service from e-finet, quite useful, I think, dont need to calculate myself.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anonymous10:03 PM

    michael,

    thanks for the info. more power to your blog.

    ReplyDelete