股票市場流行用語「五窮六絕七番身」及「Sell in May! Go Away!」今年通通應驗；大市暫時似穩非穩，但若認同250天平均線15,200為支持，可跌空間不多，暫估計六月會於15,500及16,300間徘徊，期間可慢慢入貨，搏七月來個反彈，講到八月，現時作預測尚早，股市變幻點莫測，看形勢遲些再估！
在這次跌市中，很多股票也跌破50天平均線，但有些没有跌破，有些跌破後則迅速回升其上，筆者視之為強勢股；筆者選了一些較質優的強勢股，再看3年股價圖，看股票有沒有跌破20週平均線以確認其強勢。然後以保守的「PE估值法」作估值，和市價有一定水位的可買入；買入價訂於貼近50天平均線，股價若跌破50天平均線一定幅度即股票變弱勢，可止蝕沽出。結果如下
匯豐控股(5) - 低風險 - 現價$134.9 - 目標買入價$134 - 止蝕$130-$132 (目標價：$152)
香格里拉(69) - 中風險 - 現價$14.2 - 目標買入價$13.7 - 止蝕$13 (目標價：$16.35)
中國民航信息(696) - 中風險 - 現價$9.25 - 目標買入價$9 - 止蝕$8.5 (目標價：$10.6)
AAC ACOUSTIC (2018) - 中風險 - 現價$7.85 - 目標買入價$7.8 - 止蝕$7.5 (目標價：$8.8)
玖源生態(8042) - 高風險 - 現價$0.85 - 目標買入價$0.85 - 止蝕$0.78 (目標價：$1.1)
若想搏未有業績但有慨念的股票，可選
中國水務(855) - 高風險 - 現價$1.68 - 目標買入價$1.68 - 止蝕$1.58
有問筆者中短線基金雖成功清了貨，長線基金的股票仍原封不動，股價卻在下跌，無疑賺少了！筆者不想長線投資也經常出出入入，不然已一早沽了這些股票；其實筆者也會沽出長線基金的股票，若果大市下破牛熊交界250天平均線或個別股票基本結構上或市場評價出現逆轉；如創科實業(669)，市場由吹棒此股至口誅筆伐，股價由$20.3跌至現在的$11.4，筆者也會於其跌了一定價位後，證明大户手口並用時，將其分段沽出。另外，若股票本身下破重要支持位，筆者也會考慮沽出。
(Contact: micjacq@gmail.com)
2 comments:
Micheal,
903六月出業績，現價入OK嗎?
LEO
Leo,
Earning per share (EPS) for 903 in 2005 is $0.72. Based on current price $7.3, PE is 10. As 903 is industrial leader, it is justifiable to have PE up to 15. However, its debt maybe a burden in this interest rate hike period. Therefore, the current price is quite reasonable for short run.
However, it technical trend is very bad. Its 10-Day MA has broken 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA. Its stock price is below the 50-Day MA ($8.3) in a large extent. It can be deemed as a very weak stcok in the short run.
Its 50-Week MA is $7.07. If you want to play safe, buy it at $7. If you prefer buying it at current price, you can cut-off it when it drops below the 50-Week MA.
I may sell half of 903 when it breaks $7.
Redmonkey
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