Thursday, November 30, 2006

30 Nov 2006 - 上升...震倉...調整...上升...震倉...上升...震倉...上升...震倉...股災

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大快活(52)昨天公佈中期業績,表面純利持平,即引起股價下跌,看深一層,去年賣物業賺了不少,撇除此特殊盈利核心業務盈利升七成,絕對不差;計及去年Special Dividend,今年派息少了兩仙,但Regular Dividend卻由$0.1增加六成至$0.16,顯示出管理屬對公司業務及現金流的信心;筆者認為大快活(52)消化一下上兩週升幅後,中線可再試高位$10.5;筆者會再詳談此股。






Anonymous said...

Hi Michael,

I think I have kind of guess what you will do with your long term investments from your post today about your recent reaction to the big "shake" - that you will cut lost no matter whether the fundamentals of the companies have changed or not when bear comes. So don't bother to answer my question on that if that is it.

It would be good if you could advise on how you decide on the risk of the stock with your calculation of value (the first question on my last comment).

And I also want to say that I have learnt quite a lot by reading your blog. Thanks for the sharing.


紅猴 said...


Thanks for your support.

Yes, I will sell them no matter it is fundamentally good or not, especially if it is overprized.

For example, I sold Cheung Kong (1) at about $140 in early 2000 as the extremely good market atmosphere might collapse the market later. Everyone knows that Cheung Kong (1) is fundamentally good, however, it was overprized in large degree just due to market atmophere and flow of capital. Until now, Cheung Kong (1) has not reached such historical high afterwards.

Although HSBC(5) is always fundamentally good. However, in bear market, it can still drop to lower than $100.

I invest in stock market in conservative approach. Therefore, as mentioned, it makes me gain less than other people in the bull market, however, I can lock in my profits in the bull market and at last win over most of the people.