Monday, April 03, 2006

3 Apr 2006 - 蘭桂芳爆地下水管,使筆者想起明興控股(402)

昨天上午蘭桂芳爆地下水管,直至中午過後才修復,據說這已是兩週內的第二次,這亦引發全港地下水管亦有老化之虞,而水務處亦表示未來十五年會重鋪港九新界所有地下水管;這樁新聞使筆者想起明興控股(402)。

明興控股(402)上月中上市,沒有多大迴響,但招股亦錄得120倍超購,招股價$0.72,上市首天報$0.95,升32%,現價亦有$0.9,表現實屬不賴;上市集資5千多萬元,公開集資更只得5百多萬。股仔细细,若有有心人做莊會幾好炒,因貨源較易歸邊,事實上市8天總成交已達發行股數的兩倍。

明興控股(402)擁有逾30年的歷史,主要向水務處提供水務工程服務、道路工程、渠務工程及斜坡加固服務。翻查紀錄,筆者發現明興控股(402)亦有從事水管更換及修復工程。

2004年,其聯營成功地以總承建商身份獲得七份水管更換及修復合約的其中一份,負責更換及修復觀塘道及龍翔道水管工程,合約價值約為1億1千萬,為期三年。這亦是集團首次承接地下資產管理計劃下的水管更換及修復項目,並因此會買入新機器及設備,相信其經險將提升集團日後投標類似項目的競爭力。事實上,其集資所得最大比重亦投資於相關機器及設備,似乎管理層亦看好水管更換及修復工程未來的前景。

招股時公司預期直至2006年3月之財政年度每股盈利$0.12,現價$0.9,即預期PE7.5。筆者會於現價買入此股,以上市8天以來之最低位$0.84作止蝕,目標$1.2。

投資此股,最明顯風險是單一客户,即香港政府,政府在相關公共工程方面的計劃將對集團的前景產生重大影響。其股價未必因蘭桂芳爆地下水管這樁新聞而很快產生正面影響。但筆者會短線搏一搏,約看錯亦損失有限。

(Contact: micjacq@gmail.com)

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello Michael,

123 is not doing very well. Do you think it has a chance to go back up?

Best,
Allen

Anonymous said...

Hi Michael,

好似你越來越多fans ..
我都係你既fans.
我最近入左建滔<0148.HK>,但係好似冇乜反應?你點睇?

928 你又點睇?
多謝你.

Anonymous said...

Hi Michael

1083 seems to be now oversold! Do you think it is a right time to buy it~

Thanks for your comments!

紅猴 said...

Allen,

Will comment on 123 later today.

Ramon,

Both 148 and 928 are good industrial stock. Although stock price of some industril stocks have begun to rise recently, the market focus is still not at industrial sector

928 has sharp rise in stock price in the past few days with large turnover. It should be attributed to the acquisition of its brand Mudd by other companies, which may make 928 earn some extraordinary profits. How much? Information seems not available now.

For 148, the hinderance for its stock price further rise should be attributed to its high debt.

匿名者

當其他中國燃氣股仍上升或平穩,此股之下跌耐人尋味,不知有沒有Hidden Bad News;1168系股票一向難炒,1083現時很高風險;筆者不會考慮,你有興趣搏反彈自己決定罷,還是那句嚴守止蝕!

Redmonkey