投資組合自2005年12月14日成立日計至今回報：96%筆者第一本著作「紅猴股評 - 一個散户的思考藝術」於香港書展推出後，現已在香港各大書局推售，每本訂價HK$68，筆者所收到的所有版稅將捐作慈善用途！有關書籍簡介及作者背景，請按此。(最新消息：和出版商了解後，得知「紅猴股評 - 一個散户的思考藝術」賣得不錯，銷量比筆者估計還高(因未得出版商首肯，不便透露數字)，在此向所有讀者說聲多謝！)相信大家都聽過Credit Default Swaps (CDS)，亦知CDS是令AIG差點結業的主因，看完Fortune對CDS的有關報導，才清楚CDS的整個運作是那樣爛，而這個爛攤子仍會對金融市場及企業作出衝擊！以下節錄自Fortune的報導
Two fundamental aspects of the CDS market - that it is unregulated and that almost nothing is disclosed publicly - may be about to change. Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is implementing a new rule in November that will require sellers of CDS and other credit derivatives to report detailed information, including their maximum payouts and reasons for entering the contracts, as well as assets that might allow them to offset any payouts.
A CDS is just a contract: The buyer plunks down something that resembles a premium, and the seller agrees to make a specific payment if a particular event, such as a bond default, occurs. Normally, CDS serve a very useful function of allowing finanical markets to efficiently transfer credit risk.
Because they're contracts rather than securities or insurance, CDS are easy to create. Often deals are done in a one-minute phone conversation or an instant message.
The volume of CDS has exploded with nuclear force, nearly doubling every year since 2001 to reach a recent peak of US$62 trillion at the end of 2007, before receding to US$54.6 trillion as of June 30, accoding to ISDA.
Many players in the market hold offsetting positions. So if, in theory, every entity that owns CDS had to settle its contracts tomorrow and netted all its positions against each other, a much smaller amount of money would change hands. But even a tiny fraction of that US$54.6 trillion would still be a daunting sum.
One reason the market took off is that you don't have to own a bond to buy a CDS on it - anyone can place a bet on whether a bond will fail. Indeed the majority of CDS now consists of bets on other people's debt. the US$54.6 trillion in CDS contrats completely dwarfs total corporate debt at US$6.2 trillion and the US$10 trillion it counts in all forms of asset-backed debt.
There is "counterparty risk". In many cases, you don't even know who has the other sides of your bet. Parties to the contract can transfer their side of the contracts to third parties. The danger is that if the counterparty suddenly has to pay off on a lot of CDS, it will simply go out of business.
(再看下文前請幫忙按此，參加一個有獎問答遊戲，有機得到百老匯電器店$1,000現金禮券，這是筆者工作機構活動，謝謝支持！)本末倒置的傳媒恒指雖跌至14,500，但按「紅猴股票估值表」(
按此)，只有很少股票的股價跌破筆者訂下保守的安全買入價(定義是長線買入安全，若作為短炒參考，這個幫不上忙)，優質大股或優質二三線股方面則包括了建設銀行(939)及佐丹奴(709)，當中建設銀行(939)近期股價極弱，筆者覺得是市場預期美國銀行隨時行為大手沽貨而先沽為敬，亦使市場需求轉至工商銀行(1398)，但反而是長線買入良機！
市場評論對大市越估越低，甚至估恒指會跌至8,000，這是正常現象，好像去年恒指升破30,000便估40,000，現時恒指跌破15,000便估8,000，估得中一次成了英雄，但不代表估中下次，李兆基便是經典例子！傳媒及大部分投資者跟紅頂白是他們的習性始終無法根治，筆者支持十多年的經濟日報集團(包括經濟日報、iMoney等)亦已變質，新聞報導質素雖維持高水準，但股市評論內容的平均質素，就為着取悅讀者而每况逾下，真的非常可惜，當股市大部人最終輸錢收場已是鐵律時，傳媒評論卻為了銷量而只管跟着這大部人的思想走，受害的最終只是讀者！本末倒置！
恒指會否跌至8,000？筆者不會排除任何可能性，但經濟及股市需至少兩年才有起色似漸成定局，還是想清想楚才作投資決定，形勢還不大明朗！筆者承認先前有點樂觀，致過早入貨(現時持貨成平相等恒指20,500)，雖云作長線投資，但那成本當然越低越好，還幸仍持有大量現金(以市值計投資組合45%為現金)，要好好珍惜，小心運用！
(按一下下圖可放大)
一個經濟亂局下的投資策略！2008年6日23日之股評，有興趣重溫請
按此！
(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)
