Thursday, July 19, 2007

19 July 2007 - 中國地產股有關數據(未完成版!);中國地產股短評

「紅猴股評」(www.redmonkey.hk)
「紅猴資訊」(按此)
TVB「財經透視」「財經網誌」報導(2007年3月)(按此)

2006年1月至2007年6月瀏覽人次:超過229,000
2006年1月至2007年6月瀏覽頁數:超過358,000
2005年12月14日成立之投資組合至今回報125.87%

支持「紅猴股評」,請投票,有豐富禮物(詳情按此) - 7月27日截止!


筆者嘗試自製「中國地產股有關數據表」,努力搜羅資料,但尚未完成。中國地產股比較難估值,計PE最簡單,但新會計制盈利隨資產值重估使EPS以致PE很波動;計資產淨值,中國地產商不斷借錢買地,業績公佈的資訊很快變得沒用,最新資產淨值亦不斷變化;所以,筆者嘗試製作此表,不斷載入最新資訊,方便日後比較及估值!

碧桂園(2006)上市後停滯不前,如筆者先前所說,受上市時估值過高影響;中國海外(688)市值越追越近,較碧桂園(2006)更具規模,遲早超越;當其他中國地產股急起直追並貼近時,碧桂園(2006)便有上升動力;一直小看富力地產(2777),但看其營業額及純利,規模很大,難怪不斷上升;雅居樂地產(3383)、合生創展(754)及綠城中國(3900)規模差不多,PE相對不高,有上升空間;合景泰富(1813)規模相對很細,但若大摩發功,潛力卻很大!

總括而言,較看好雅居樂地產(3383),睇位買入!

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投資組合以$6.2沽出經緯紡織(350),以$8.29沽出中石化(386)及以$5.58沽出天津港(3382),共蝕$2,620。上兩週有國策出台有利經緯紡織(350),國策是公開資訊,若果應升就繼續升,升完又跌似乎國策有利極有限,止蝕;油價升,成品油自訂價格機制有可能因控制通脹而推遲,中石化(386)勢弱,止蝕;天津港(3382)本藉升勢買入,但持續勢弱,止蝕。

今天以$16.18買入信和(83),跌至$16附近支持位,過往多月不斷回購,管理層明顯不滿現價,向下可以過往半年最低位$15.3止蝕,有資金炒上的話可見$18.5以上,化算!

(按一下下圖可放大)



(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)

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6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Would you like to share how you arrive at the Net Asset Value/share for the properties developers? I assume this is not the NBV on their balance sheet. Is it based on estimates in paid research reports?

Anonymous said...

Hi Monkey ,long time no see ~
It's great to know that you will make a file for China property stocks. I also specialised in doing China property stocks research for a few years and accumulated a few ideas on how to value and compare the stocks. Hope I can have time to type it down to share with you in these days.

Timmy

Anonymous said...

天津港 处于长方的横盘整理箱体,现在正好是底部,你怎么卖了呀,马上就有一小波反弹,并且 天津港是国家重点扶植发展的对象,并且有可能同 A股的天津港集团合并,升值的潜力很大啊,
Wayne

Anonymous said...

雖然沽了隻3382,但新買的83今日好掂,上午+六元多少少任買,下午先爆上,Thanks!

edwin t

紅猴 said...

Roger,

The NAVs are from the latest newspaper and analyst report I can access to.

Timmy,

Great! Pending for your input.

Wayne,

Thanks for your comment. I have recommended and purhcased 3382 in Apr and cashed in the profit. I sold it as its momentum is quite weak recently. Maybe right or wrong.

http://redmonkeyblog.blogspot.com/2007/04/23-apr-2007-3382.html#comments

edwin t

The only reason for any sharp rise in stock price immediately after purchasing a stock is "Luck".

Redmonkey

Anonymous said...

Thanks. I dont have exp on how to value the property developers. Really hope your report will give me some clue.