Friday, January 16, 2009

16 Jan 2009 - 處身經濟衰退,怎辦?

投資組合自2005年12月14日成立日計至今回報:93%

「一些實際的股票選擇!」(按此)
「不同行業分析一覧 」(按此)
「重新制訂投資取向、投資策略及股票分佈」(按此)
「過往十年香港股市的走勢對現况有何啟示!」(按此)

FORTUNE最新一期有篇題為「How to Manage Your Business in a Recession」的文章,筆者認為有些點子很有價值,有些則發人深省,值得記下和大家分享一下,無論對做生意、打工、投資甚至自身歷程都有幫助

It's human nature to avoid confronting bad news and to imagine that today's troubles will pass more quickly and easily than they really will. (這就是大多數投資者傾向樂觀想法之源)

You identify areas where you think you can be more efficient by assuming the worst-case scenario. Facing the coming reality before your competitors do can make a big difference in which of you stays healthy or even who survives.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P.Morgan Chase said recently, "I am shocked at the number of people who are watching that train coming down the track, and they're still worrying about their strategic plan for 2009" We have to reset priorities to face the new reality.

Keep investing in the core. The most successful companies never stop funding their most critical competencies.

Your customers face new problems, so give them new solutions. No matter what business you're in, you can redefine value for the customer.

Focus on captial - how you're getting it and where you're using it. Companies that are managed explicitly for capital efficiency are stronger now than they would be otherwise.

Think twice about offshoring. McKinsey found that a midrange computer server could be made for much less in Asia than in U.S. in 2003, but by last year, the cost advantage had reversed, so that making the machine was actually cheaper in America.

最後一點,代表中國的出口下降除因外需減少外,低成本的優勢也開始消失!

(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)

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