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Tuesday, January 27, 2009

27 Jan 2009 - 恒指2009年預期PE表

投資組合自2005年12月14日成立日計至今回報:88%

歐洲金融股接連出現的好消息,使歐洲及日本股市顯著回升,若接着兩天沒有什麼壞消息,香港股市於週四復市後將扭轉多日下跌之劣勢,而於$55築起血肉長城買入匯豐(5)的小投資者暫時亦可開香檳慶祝攫底成功!

全球股市於不明朗因素下形成樂觀與悲觀之角力,先前十天八天的跌市形成悲觀情緒,這些好消息之出現加上平淡倉的威力或可使樂觀情緒恢復一陣子。大市就因為樂觀與悲觀之角力而上上落落,但這次會否就此長線轉勢向上,大家還需要更多的資訊及訊息,去了解這次是否已解決了根本的問題,萬勿將金融海嘯想得太簡單。

但是恒指究竟會在那個範圍上上落落?筆者就此做了一個「恒指2009年預期PE表」,假設恒指2009年的EPS在預期不同下跌幅度下,於不同的指數下,預期PE將會是多少?

(按一下下圖可放大)

歷史告訴大家,恒指的平均值約12,筆者便將恒指2009年的EPS在預期不同下跌幅度下,預期PE為12的一格以黃色標示,以作參考。

另外,若假設恒指2009年的EPS下跌幅度為30%,而恒指會在是年預期PE10至15間徘徊,今年恒指將會於10,000至15,000上上落落,合理值則為12,000。當然,這個結論作了很多假設,但也得弄一個出來以作投資策略制訂之基礎!(後記:因市場預期瞬息萬變,筆者若得到足夠資訊,便會於此更新「恒指2009年預期PE表」)

事實上,全球主要股市於2008年10月急跌後仍逃不出主要徘徊於長方形內的上下波幅格局,好像Dow Jones及日經指數都於8,000點形成強力底部,英國富時及香港恒指則分別於4,000及12,500有強勁支持!

(按一下下圖可放大)






(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Happy Chinese new year.

The calculation is ok but when the P.E. is clear to the market, the market will move miles away already.

Given that

1. 2628 has already announced 50% drop in the profit last year, (2628 has outperformed compared to previous years because of the earth quake in May)

2. 0005 has two third of its business affected by the financial crisis,

3. 941 will need to pour money in 3G development,

4. 019, 293 made a big lost from oil.

5. 388 trade volume decrease over 50% this year. 2008 trade volume is not too bad in the first half year.

6. 2318 Fortis writedown.

7. 688 Chinese properties? Forget about it, it won't recover till 2011 at least.

8. 267 ? AUS dollar still falling.

9. 330, 494, 551? export to U.S and Europe?

10.1199 BDI has dropped 95%.

11. 0013, still haunts by europe's 3G cost.

12. All properties developers, like 001, 003, 66, 16, 17? Ask yourself a question -- do you feel HK or china's properties have surged much last year?

13. All banks from China. given the down turn of economy in China, a lot of dirt will float up.

14. Commodities 2600, 883, 857? How much commodities has dropped since July?

--------

After reminding all the bad news in HSI 42 components stocks, how much confidence you have? Still thinking about only 40% drop in eps?


mL

紅猴 said...

mL

Happy New Year!!!

Understand that PE alway fluctuates due to change of forecast. Therefore, we have to keep track what is happening actually and what the market is expecting. Frankly speaking, it is not easy!

By the way, thanks very much for your evaluation. In this market, everything can happen so that I prefer not being aggressive. The risk is only earning less money if the market surge really happens. However, I don't think earning less money should be considered "a risk" (although many investors still think that they must earn every dollar from the stock market)!

Redmonkey

立邦毅德.Alpha研究所 said...

恭喜發財!

很想知道網誌牛年會有新大計或目標嗎?