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Monday, May 30, 2011

30 May 2011 - 買入銅鑼灣:由重塑到重建!

投資組合自2005年12月14日成立日計至今回報:299%

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重組投資組合(及補充)

為了取得更理想回報,及用多些時間作更深入研究,筆者從2011年5月1日起重組投資組合,主力改變投資策略及組合管理,可按此了解詳情。 另於2011年5月9日作了些補充,可按此重溫。另外,若股價比買入價下跌10%,便需考慮止蝕,若下跌達15%理應即時止蝕。

相片分享:筆者的一點投資經驗分享

剛從主辦單位ChartNexus(www.chartnexus.com.hk)收到上週四分享會的相片,選了數張給大家分享。




因應與會者要求,現將當天講義給大家分享,可按此瀏覽,當然講義有些地方未能自我詮釋,未有出席者未必能明白當中意義。

買入金朝陽集團(878)

金朝陽集團(878)上週以低折讓配股,復牌後不跌反升,屬強勢。今天以$12.86買入,不過低收$12.68。

上週筆者於香港經濟日報「投資理財週刊」撰文「買米蘭站不如買「銅鑼灣」!」提及「銅鑼灣雖旺,但亦有不少未完全「開墾」的地方,大地主希慎興業(14)最近便開始重塑希慎道及禮頓道較少人流一帶,友邦中心的普通寫字樓大堂竟變了一間Cartier,開業多年的翠園酒家現已變了I.T.(999)的旗艦店,禮頓中心的地鋪亦正加緊裝修,比以前凹了下去的鋪位定必煥然一新,新寧大厦應會是另一目標。...希慎(14)雖云現股價對去年尾的每股資產淨值不呈折讓,但預期資產價格將被向上重估及租金上漲下,只需中港經濟保持活力,當為逢低吸納之選。」

另外亦提及「從禮頓道再往外走,銅鑼灣的投資慨念便由重塑變為重建...金朝陽(878)為區內重建表表者,除涉足羅素街、希雲街、霎東街、登龍街等外,地盤已擴至大坑,去年以極速售罄尚巒,呎價達1.2萬至2.2萬元。金朝陽現股價對去年尾的每股資產淨值折讓超過50%,剛被納入大摩香港小型股指數成份股,不容忽視其潛力。」

投資組合

昨天提升佐丹奴(709)估值後計劃加貨,可惜今天一開市便高開,筆者唯有靜觀其變,收市大升7.5%至$7.17,比筆者買入價7個交易日升了22.2%,此次捉到此股升浪但可惜買得少。

昨天股評詳加分析了玻璃股,提及「中國玻璃(3300)已跌破自去年10月延伸上升軌的支持線,筆者計劃若其跌破$3.5則忍痛止蝕」,今天幸中國玻璃(3300)跌至$3.53已告反彈,收市與信義玻璃(868)一樣反彈逾5%,但筆者仍訂止蝕價於$3.5。

(5月31日後記:以$8.29買入3,000股興達國際(1899))

(按一下下圖可放大)


(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

can u pls comment on 460 HK?
it has huge volume today.
will it rise or drop these days?

紅猴 said...

5月31日後記:以$8.29買入3,000股興達國際(1899)

紅猴 said...

I don't know why 四環醫藥(460) dropped in a large extent with high volume today. Have not followed this stock as its stock price is relatively high in this sector. Even now, the expected PE this year is about 25.

If you are a long-term reader of this blog, you must know that I am not good at trading in short-term. Therefore, I cannot give you good suggestion about short-term movement.

Anonymous said...

thank you for your quick response!

i see many technical analysis from your blog, therefore i ask for an opinion!

(including p.21 and 22 from your presentation note: ChartNexus Talk 110526 (Redmonkey))

by the way, may i know how do u calculate the pe of a company?
(the pe of 460 is 31 in etnet and those with high volume has got pe over 30-40 except 神威藥業)

can i get the pe info easily from web? (that calculate a company's operating earnings without one-off earnings?)

appreciate for your professional advise!!

紅猴 said...

Sorry to having made you misunderstand. Regarding technical analysis, I only use Moving Average, Support Line and Resistance Line as reference. I still rely on fundamentals. Besides, as 460 has just been listed for several months, the timeline is not long enough to draw long-term Support Line and Resistance.

For PE, we have to use forecast PE, but not historical PE. It hinges on if we can get the market average expected EPS (earnings per share). Bloomberg can help, but it costs much and therefore I make a reference (some are out-of-dated) table about that and you can visit http://www.editgrid.com/user/redmonkey/Stock_Valuation for details.

About getting a company's operating earnings without one-off earnings directly from somewhere, it is very difficult indeed. Sometimes, we have to make analysis by reading the annual report by ourselves.

^^" said...

thank you for the useful info!you are very kind and sure we need to do assignment and researh ourself

by the way, i think you have a lot of short term trading. if you do not study a stock very good, why dont you buy option. because if you think a stock is very good, you should buy whenever it has a lower price but not setting a stop loss order. pls advise if i am wrong!