Monday, November 27, 2006

27 Nov 2006 - 山東招金(1818)及建滔積層板(1888)可小量認購作短線投資

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2006年1至10月瀏覽人次:80,000

昨天股評談及要認購山東招金(1818),為什麼不乾脆買紫金礦業(2899)?結果市場中人亦有同一見解,致使紫金礦業(2899)大升8%至$5.42,亦間接使山東招金(1818)得到上升空間。另外,中國銀行股這幾天有較像樣的調整,要留心其股價走勢,若續向下可帶動其他股票一同作調整。

現續談新股,以下為節錄自報章對建滔積層板(1888)「理性」的分析及筆者「理性」的結論。

「建滔積層板在2005年全球剛性覆銅面板市場,擁有最高市佔率,以生產值計,佔全球9.9%,其主要競爭對手日本松下電器及台灣南亞塑膠,則分別佔9.8%及8.1%。在中國市場亦領先同儕,市佔率為31.7%。建滔積層板為少數擁有垂直整合生產結構的製造商之一。於2005年,約75%的玻璃紗及銅箔之全部需求,均由內部生產供應。內部生產上游原料有效減省生產成本,並有助公司應付原料價格的波動。所有生產設施均位於勞動成本較低之中國,低成本架構,較主要競爭對手優勝。中國佔全球覆銅面板總生產值持續上升,反映中國持續受惠外判趨勢。

建滔積層板面對最大的風險,是覆銅面板行業周期或已見頂。自02年起,全球電子設備市場復甦,受全球電子產品高需求帶動,覆銅面板產量在過去兩年穩步上升。全球覆銅面板市場於04及05年,總產值分別增長12%及23%,預測今年增18%,但預測07及08年增長將顯著放緩,分別僅增6%及9%。數據反映覆銅面板高增長期發生在去年及今年,但展望未來兩年不再高增長,令市場擔心該行業的黃金周期經已過去。

建滔積層板預測06年賺16.2億元,按年急增50%。但產能趨飽和,未來3年每年生產能力增長20%,故估計未來一兩年盈利增長空間將收窄。原材料佔建滔積層板去年銷售成本68%,其中銅料佔約30%。

銅價自03年起由每噸1,600美元累積上漲至今年最高8,600美元,原材料價格高企,而該公司又未有作對,這有機會削弱公司盈利能力。全球覆銅面板工業架構是供應商高度集中,隨原材料價格上漲,供應商都相應跟隨調高產品售價,把上升成本轉嫁予客戶。,因此,過去2至3年,公司毛利率都能維持在接近30%的水平。

建滔積層板的主要市場中國(佔營業額87%),未來增長同樣料放緩。JMS指出,中國在03、04、05年,覆銅面板生產值分別增長24%、32%、23%,但預期強化趨勢可能終止,05至08年複合年增長率料13%。」

建滔化工(148)是次出售的7.5億股中,有80%是舊股,令人憂慮建滔化工是次分拆或只為於高位套利。建滔積層板在上市前派發特別股息予母公司,其上市在一定程度上是為母公司套現。

估值方面,建滔積層板招股定價介乎預測06年PE11.0至14.3倍,比較全球同類股份,包括日本日立化成、台灣南亞塑膠、廣東生益科技,及美國Park Electrochemical,平均的17倍,折讓19%(若以上限定價)。若上市後PE炒至15至17倍,潛在目標介乎8.1元至9.18元,假設最終以上限7.73元定價,利潤空間料介乎5%至19%不等。」

建滔積層板(1888)為行業龍頭股,PE比其他地方同類股低,本來不差;但建滔化工(148)所作所為帶給市場頗強烈訊號是在高位套現,需打折扣。

總括而言,山東招金(1818)及建滔積層板(1888)質素好但上市價估值不低,新股熱潮可製造短期需求,可小量認購作短線投資,或有一至兩成上升空間;中長線則端現未來業績及大市氣氛。上市價於現市況算是合理價,「非理性」溢價則難於判斷。

(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Michael,

Thanks for you reply re calculation of companies' value. Is the risk of the stock an estimate of you by experience, or does it based on some other factors, such as fluctuation of its historic price?

May I also ask what will you do with your long-term investment and those that you bought based on value investing when the bull market ends? Given that the fundamentals of a company hasn't changed, will you sell its stock just because the atmosphere of the market has changed and stock price starts to drop because of others' unwillingness to hold? I have noticed that you mentioned the importance of cut loss, but does this apply to those in your long-term portfolio? I am new to investing and your experience will be of great value to me. Thanks in advance.

Vincent

紅猴 said...

The required rate of require, which reflecting the risk of the stock, is estimation by my experience. My investment approach is not so scientific to use fluctuation of historical price. Formally, we may need to use financial modeling which should be supported by computer program.

For long-term investment, I will also perform cut-gain or cut-loss. However, I can bear a larger extent than those stocks in the medium-term investment.

Actually, I am a conversative investor and will sell some of my holdings in the long-term investment portfolio when the atmosphere changes. However, I will not sell them in all, but one by one in order to avoid making wrong decision.

For example, I have sold 494 and part of 2628 on Oct and kept others so that I can enjoy other stocks' apprecaition in case I made wrong predictions.

As small investors, it is hard for me to predict the market, so that I always emphasize that we have to "摸着石頭過河"

Redmonkey