筆者第一本著作「紅猴股評 - 一個散户的思考藝術」於香港書展推出後，現已陸續在商務、三聯及中華各分店推售，每本訂價HK$68，筆者所收到的所有版稅將捐作慈善用途！
有關書籍簡介及作者背景，請按此。
有關相片，請按此。
(最新消息：和出版商了解後，得知「紅猴股評 - 一個散户的思考藝術」賣得不錯，銷量比筆者估計還高(因未得出版商首肯，不便透露數字)，在此向所有讀者說聲多謝！)
今天一開市恒指低試17,000點，筆者亦以$17.62入了1,500股盈富基金(2800)。
至中午收市前，赫見恒指大跌1,300點，至16,300點，那個17,200點至17,300點支持位完全冇支持，筆者的一般散户基因重現，信心開始動搖，不去按計劃再入貨，但仍堅持不沽貨，卻走去換貨以降低組合風險及增加息率，結果以$39.4沽出全部500股中國平安(2318)及以$15.98沽出一半即2,000股招商銀行(3968)，虧損$23,300，但即時將套現所得全數以$16.9買入3,000股盈富基金(2800)。
下午三隻股票都回升，但因盈富基金(2800)回升幅度較細，這個變動今天來說相對上是輸了！但這個變動使筆者更安心持有現時的股票，就是大市再大跌也能安心，因為已將個股結業風險差不多減至最低！
筆者今天又受到一次教訓，控制自己的心理狀况仍需努力！其實這個月的跌市筆者認為一直處理不錯，奈何今天之超預期大跌擾亂了筆者之情緒，回想上午之大跌為大户之震倉慣用技兩！但切身處地，就算於今天低位買貨，是把握這個難得機會還是越陷越深，其實只是一線之差，而當時亦不會知道！
今天「大奇蹟日」再現，看看恒指會否於16,300點營造一個堅固底部。
(按一下下圖可放大)
長線投資組合以現值計82%資金持股，成本相對恒指21,000點，以買入成本計息率2.6%。以整個組合現值計，現金仍佔46%，仍相對保守。
一個經濟亂局下的投資策略！
2008年6日23日之股評，有興趣重溫請按此！
(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)
8 comments:
塞翁失馬，焉知非福？數日前見你2800入貨略早，但不想會放2318，此貨每次低位都是反竄極快，小弟幾乎在36接貨(近來橫行段的跌幅量度)，但市場無論升跌都總是有過之而無不及，似乎30-33試盤更有安全空間？時下超賣，應該是接貨而不是出貨的時候。讀紅猴兄股評多時，受益良多。故借機分享一則小弟往往做不到的鐵則：非超買不賣，非超賣不買。超賣時人心虛怯，誰敢買？超買時人心雄壯，誰願意賣？共勉，共勉。
Brother Redmonkey,
That was the "magic moment" you mentioned a few days ago and becacuse of what you said, I was able to act according to plan and sustained the shakeout in the morning. Txs mate.
放2318因持貨只有500股，組合內風險最大，便清理了，以減低風險角度沒錯，但以回報論當然不大對！
謝謝這句「非超買不賣，非超賣不買」
Redmonkey
這是一個magic moment，當時不會知亦冇跡可尋！
事情到了最劣的地步時反引起大家同心力撐！
很慚愧這次未能完全依計劃行事，是一個好好檢討的機會，沒有實際損失，損失的只是機會成本才，算是一個不錯的教訓！
Redmonkey
Redmonkey,
See what happens when not sticking to plan. I was also planning to add to position below 17000, but didnt coz I thought the situation was really bad and I lost confident.
I think it`s silly to keep adjusting for the risk attitude. Of course the market only can drop to 16000 level when no one`s sure what`s going to happen. When people start to see the worst is over, you just cant expect to pick up shares at that level.
RC
Hello~
It was really bad yesterday. The whole financial market seem meltdown.
Anyway, I am also holding some funds (e.g. Taiwan, BRIC..etc), do you think it's time to sell and invest to HK stock market? As I remember you once mentioned you have bought quite a lot of similar funds. Did you sell them or still keeping them?
Thank you very much
Toby
RC,
Discipline is the most important element in stock investment. No matter in cut-gain / cut-loss or buying according to strategy.
Redmonkey
toby,
My attitude to fund investment is different from stock investment. Therefore, the performance of my fund investment is not good indeed.
Seems that I am too lazy in that areas and I have to devote more time for fund investment in the future.
I will review it and share with you in blog soon.
In view of global stock market rebound, funds invested in different regions will rise also. However, in the long run, if you are confident with the Chinese economic growth (than other regions), you can consider shifting some funds to China and HK.
Redmonkey
Redmonkey
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