Tuesday, September 23, 2008

23 Sep 2008 - 看錯蒙牛(2319)!

投資組合自2005年12月14日成立日計至今回報:128%

筆者第一本著作「紅猴股評 - 一個散户的思考藝術」於香港書展推出後,現已陸續在商務、三聯及中華各分店推售,每本訂價HK$68,筆者所收到的所有版稅將捐作慈善用途!

有關書籍簡介及作者背景,請按此

有關相片,請按此


(最新消息:和出版商了解後,得知「紅猴股評 - 一個散户的思考藝術」賣得不錯,銷量比筆者估計還高(因未得出版商首肯,不便透露數字),在此向所有讀者說聲多謝!)

筆者於8月27日的股評列出了「入貨清單!」(按此重溫),將蒙牛(2319)列為「優質二三線股」,於此亦只可承認錯誤!其實筆者自覺選這些股的門檻已不低,但仍中招,奈何!雖然蒙牛(2319)於毒奶事件是配角而非主角,但仍需重新審視其管理層的質素甚至誠信,究竟大股東於8月初配股究竟有何啟示!

剛記得筆者於5月28日的股評「蒙牛也講大話?! 」(按此重溫)談及蒙牛(2319)管理層的誠信問題,雖是小事一樁,筆者後來也沒放在心裡,但原來真的見微知著!幸好因蒙牛(2319)一直股價高企而筆者未有持股,但相信需提高中國企業,尤其是私企的風險系數!

可是筆者還是中了招!筆者已一段時間未有飲蒙牛奶,但就是毒奶事件發生前數天於超市多手買入8盒「特侖蘇」,放了個多星期,前天終於放開懷抱開始飲了一包!但是相信筆者會有一段時間亦不會再買蒙牛奶!

匯源果汁(1886)及蒙牛(2319),一個天堂一個地獄,可口可樂現在會否後悔高價買入匯源果汁(1886)?就算匯源果汁質素上佳,可口可樂亦可用毒奶事件向匯源果汁(1886)壓價!

(按一下下圖可放大)


一個經濟亂局下的投資策略!

2008年6日23日之股評,有興趣重溫請按此

(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

可口可樂現在能否選擇不買入匯源果汁嗎?

Anonymous said...

蒙牛8月先配股,
跟手就出事。
有沒有conflict?

Anonymous said...

若果你唔介意, 都係唔好飲大陸奶了, 你上大陸啲網睇下就已經嚇死咗, 仲飲得落???

PGHK said...

ubs 先係十七減持蒙牛(2x)...
今日見到佢係復牌果贈持(6.x)... 佢真好野..

紅猴 said...

encoh,

It depends on what type of agreement they have signed. But, there are rumours that there may be hidden deal to facilitate this purchase.

I think we have to trust the decision made by such an experienced company, Coca-cola!

Redmonkey

紅猴 said...

Is there any conflict of interests? First of all, there should be something trigger the investigation. Then, the regulator must prove that the stock placement is based on insider information.

No one wonder!

Redmonkey

紅猴 said...

ccs,

I will consider your comments. Thanks a lot!

However, we must know that there are many positive lies and negative lies in China!

Redmonkey

紅猴 said...

pghk,

No comment on individual trading. Sometimes win. Sometimes lose.

Redmonkey

Anonymous said...

From the chart, you can see it was already in a down trend at the beginning of 2008.