投資組合自2005年12月14日成立日計至今回報：88%
HSBC, Too Big to Analyze! So, Let's Value It in a Simple Way!
昨天買了400股匯豐(5)的目的不屬投資行為，只是使筆者於此歷史時刻更有心機留意一下這間公司！
匯豐(5)英文版年報有472頁，無時間看，無心機看，快速揭了百多頁，亦自問沒有能力看得明白！
惟有走去另一個極端，用最簡單的方法為其估值！
筆者先前提及，現時投資，短線走勢難測，即管假設3年後全球經濟重回正軌，就看看匯豐(5)2012年值多少錢，去計一計若現時買入，不理股價走勢，放上3年，是否值得！
匯豐(5)管理層估計2009年首三季派息8美仙，保守估計第四季維持派息8美仙，即全年派息32美仙。管理層亦估計其後每年派息增10%，2012年將派息HK$3.3，過去數年匯豐(5)派息比率維持55%，2012年的每股盈利將為HK$6。假設匯豐(5)就得此次供股配股集資，相對現時計每股盈利達HK$8.5(=HK$6*17/12)，賺HK$1,000億，達2003年至2004年的盈利水平，沒有了美國業務下尚算合理估算！匯豐(5)於最高峰的2007年賺HK$1,500億。
假設2012年經濟平穩下，匯豐(5)的估值PE為10，即2012年估值達HK$60。
筆者昨天以HK$46.1買入，供股後每股成本變成HK$40.8。假設三年後真的升至HK$60，加上3年下來收息$8.2，回報67%，每年複式回報18.7%，已算不錯！但再計入仍有很多不明朗因素的風險下，若每年複式回報達20%將更理想！即供股除淨(3月12日)前以HK$44.1下買入(今天收$44.2)，或供股除淨後以$39.4下買入才可達此目標！
不然的話，其實還有更多其他股票更值得投資！
(因百忙中抽時間寫Blog，初稿是漏了計入股息，現在已作修正！)
(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)
9 comments:
到2012,你未計埋股息回報哦...
sdwin,
Thanks for your reminder.
I have amended the blog contents.
Redmonkey
Some says you need to hold a min of 3 lots (1200 shares) to convert the rights into shares. 166*3= 498.
Hold 1 lot (400) would only give you 166 shares rights which is not accepted, so you must sell it on the market or lose it.
I have not confirmed this myself...
In my opinion, 5 will not recover until Europe and USA are good.
However, this seems even harder to achieve than China's export-to-domestic demand transformation, because they don't even know where to go and how to go. For example, the Obama's plan is doomed to fail, because what USA really need is groundbreaking and monopolized technology which seems impossible to me.
The financial money-printing machine is damaged totally, and all the banks worldwide are going back to their original business, which could not be good when economics is bad.
I really doubt how much 5 can earn in the future.
Having 400 shares will be entitled rights to buy 167 shares at HK$28.1. It is not necessary to sell the rights if one wants to exercise this rights to buy more shares.
The additional 167 shares will become odd lots, but they can still be hold in the market especially for high-turnover stock like HSBC.
By the way, if one has 1,200 shares and exercise the rights, one will still have 98 shares odd lot!
Redmonkey
Wonder the economy can be back to normal 3 years later. Who knows! Just an assumption.
If one feels pessimistic, he / she should require higher rate of return for purchaing HSBC. For example, he / she feels more comfortable if purchasing it at HK$30 or lower or he / she just avoid buying any HSBC.
Redmonkey
>> still have 98 shares odd
yeah... I also think you might(?) be able to buy 1200, and then you exercise 400 rights instead of the full 498, and then you can have one full lot without any odd shares left. i.e. 12股供4股
You can then choose whatever to do with the 98.. sell it or lose it.
>> Having 400 shares will be entitled rights to buy 167 shares at HK$28.1. It is not necessary to sell the rights if one wants to exercise this rights to buy more shares.
what I am trying to say is that when it goes ex-, the min rights to exercise might be 400 not 167. (not sure). If so, your idea to take part would fail because later on you must either sell the 167 rights or you risk losing it. You will not be able to convert this into shares.
說真，筆者的供股經驗很淺，因為筆者過往都是逃避供股，若持有股票宣佈供股會沽出算數。
但照筆者理解，167股的供股樣亦可供167股，不需儲夠400股。
另外，筆者多次表明此次買入匯豐(5)不屬投資行為，於3月8日的股評提及中短線不會投資此股，不會為了一個「體驗」再投入金錢！
Redmonkey
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