Thursday, July 21, 2011

21 Jul 2011 - 世事無絕對,只有「真」情趣!

投資組合自2005年12月14日成立日計至今回報:285%

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世事無絕對,只有「真」情趣!

當一隻一隻投資者信賴甚至投入不少感情的基金愛股及傳媒熱捧股,如數年前的匯豐(5)、中國移動(941)、宏利(945)到近年的中國人壽(2628)後,落得股價跌至令失卻信心的地步,究竟是止蝕、低吸還是避之則吉,實質如賭博,贏輸只是一線之差!

相信大家還記得中國公路股的好處包括高息率、良好現金流、穩定收入增長、高邊際利潤率等,更往往於淡市時受市場追捧。可是,股市實變幻無常,不能一本通書睇到老,看看先前的匯豐(5)、中國移動(941)、宏利(945)及中國人壽(2628),到近期由天堂跌落凡間的基金愛股、傳媒熱捧股到中國公路股,不能不說「世事無絕對,只有「真」情趣!」什麼是「真」?那裡是「道理」所在?只有市場才會告訴你!

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中國公路股過往兩年股價圖(鳴謝:www.chartnexus.com.hk)






投資組合

匯賢(87001)昨天宣布,將成立項目發展團隊,三位成員現任長實(00001)業務發展經理(中國酒店),專責為匯賢產業信托物色投資機遇。據香港現行房地產投資信托基金守則,該公司最高貸款額可達總資產值的45%。公司現正就多個潛在收購進行深入磋商,並將持續積極尋求提供可觀長期現金流與回報的內地投資物業。

筆者今天以人民幣$4.67增持5,000股。另外,以$89買入ASM太平洋(522),此股因市場恐防半導體周期見頂而近期急挫,此次買入有搏超賣意圖,會於其跌破長期支持位時止蝕。

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(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi, there seems to be some errors in your forward PE calculation in your 估值 spreadsheet. My understanding is that we should use current price and estimated EPS in the next 12 months to calculate forward PE. This means we should be using 2011 estimated EPS now. However, in Row 176 "東方表行", I noticed that you are using 2012 EPS to calculate 2011 forward PE. Just my two cents.

紅猴 said...

Thanks very much for your comment.

The fiscal year of 398 ends on 31 Mar each year. I use EPS (2012) to calculate expected PE (2011) as EPS (2012) covers 9 months in 2011 (Apr to Dec) and 3 months in 2012 (Jan to Mar). I think it is more reasonable.

Redmonkey

Anonymous said...

Thanks for getting back. You have your point.