推薦活動

19 Nov 2019 - [投資論壇] 和「經濟商學院」連續第五年合作公開講座順利完成

自2015年起連續第五年,和「香港經濟日報 - 經濟商學院」舉辦 收費 講座 ,每年都有 約 300人參與 ,今年 因找到合適場地不易,座位減至200人多少少,結果於 活動兩星期前已報名爆滿,當天基本上也座位滿滿,於近月整體氣氛差勁下,實屬難得,無言感激! 今年 講座題目改為...

Saturday, March 25, 2006

25 Mar 2006 - 「升破52週新高股」強勢之謎!

筆者之前曾提及會對「升破52週新高股」作出分析。筆者於去年11月到今年1月搜集了73隻「升破52週新高股」,而這些股票於筆者紀錄日期之前3個月並沒有升破52週新高的紀錄,即是這些股票在股價上作出了近數月的重大突破。

有些投資者覺得「升破52週新高股」已是强弩之末,應該買一些經回肚後,離之前高位還遠的股票搏反彈;但是一隻股票從高位回落變弱勢,無力再上,總有原因,基本因素改變或基金撤走,可以使一隻股票跌完可以再跌。相反,一隻股票升破52週新高,尤其是之前數個月又沒有破52週新高之紀錄,即春江鴨剛發掘到其潛在好處,買了貨不久,支持股價上升的消息陸續出現,強勢會漸現。

在统計的73隻股票中,以昨天股價計,平均升了31%;上升的有66隻,下趺有7隻;上升超過30%的則有33隻。所以筆者很喜歡後「升破52週新高股」中發掘出寶蔵!




(按一下上圖可放大)

有些投資者說此方法只在牛市通行,此說不無道理,因為熊市股價在下跌,根本很少有「升破52週新高股」出現!但若筆者預期今年將成泡沫市之說應驗,很多股價將慢慢被發掘,並會一浪高於一浪,我們便有留意「升破52週新高股」的價值。

(Contact: micjacq@gmail.com)

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

看來平均回報都很高 ...

lok said...

升完再升的百分比之高令小弟十分意外

用這個簡單方法來選股,回報也可以如此出色

Edmond said...

Thanks for the information. It is very useful for me. Many thanks. Edmond

jason said...

It is very useful. Thanks!
Btw, which website can simply sort out those stocks?

potatoman said...

越秀投資0123短線博得過ma?

981中蕊就快公佈業績,你覺得是好是壞?
反彈有動力ma?

簡志健 (Michael Kan) said...

Jason, I do not know any website can help sort out the stocks which have just broken 52-week high. The statistics are doen by my efforts!

The recent rise of 123 should be attributed to its property business in Guangzhou. It seems that the momentum can keep on. Better to buy at 20-Day Moving Average!

The business and market comment on 981 are very fluctuating. It is hard to predict what should be the appropriate price of 981. I personally will not consider buying this stock.

Redmonkey

Anonymous said...

Hi Michael,
我剛剛才開始投資,可否看我的組合有沒有改善的地方。
0005-400@$124.3
915-10000@2.125
502-20000@0.455
152-20000@0.35
2899-2000@3.95
3398-6000@2.65
2689-4000@4.85/1000@IPO
3308-1000@IPO
3328-1000@IPO
會不會太散?應否集中只買兩三集?

Thanks!!
LEO

簡志健 (Michael Kan) said...

Leo,

Your investment is very good. No need to diversify just for the sake of "diversification". The concern should be that if you can manage so many stock at the same time.

However, don't forget to cut loss. Have you set cut-off price for 915?

Redmonkey

Anonymous said...

Hi Michael
Thanks for sharing your study with us. However, I have a question here... as for #2000 and #1088.. they have not been listed for more than a year...so what is your criteria to define their "52 week high". Do u simply use their all time high? but then again let say a newly listed stock which make (10 days old say)... a 10 days high.. would you consider that as well? please advice.
Rdgs
Thewie

簡志健 (Michael Kan) said...

Thewie,

1088及2000雖上市不足一年,但亦已上市了9個月,股價圖亦成了形,上市初期存在的非理性表現已成過去。其實筆者已剔除了很多上市不久的股票。

Redmonkey

Anonymous said...

Hi Michael
thanks for your reply.
so if a stock is newly liested... you use 9 momth high as the criteria?

Rds
Thewie