20 Apr 2008 - 參考大師之言，修訂投資策略！

「紅猴股評」(www.redmonkey.hk)
「紅猴股票估值表」(按此)
TVB「財經透視」「中資高峰會」(2008年4月13日至5月8日)(按此)

投資組合自2005年12月14日成立日計至今回報：152%
2006年1月至2008年3月瀏覽人次：超過571,000
2006年1月至2008年3月瀏覽頁數：超過840,500

筆者先前提及，今年第二季的股市充滿矛盾，於難以預測未來市况的當下，最近幾位投資大師及分析大師的言論不知可否為大家帶來啟示！節錄內容不短，但值得用點時間看看！

另外，筆者剛重新整理了「紅猴股票估值表」，有興趣参考一下請按此。

陸東：「Accumulator的upside有限、downside無限」

先來點花絮！據報載，話說有瑞銀私人銀行部的同事問陸東有冇興趣買Accumulator，他一睇Accumulator的upside有限、downside無限，便說怎樣都不會沾手！

筆者於4月6日的股評(按此)曾提及類似觀點，而此論調絕非筆者想出來，亦只是前人智慧！道理簡單易明，為什麼這麼多人中招？道理更簡單，和是次高位回落輸錢或滿手蟹貨的投資者一樣，「貪」得沒有節制，「明知」但「故犯」罷！

所以投資的心態比分析技巧更為重要，但很多人不斷強化後者，卻忽略前者！

陸東：美元下半年轉強

陸東看美元下半年轉強，理由是美國政府一定會推出措施，吸引資金重流美國。他還透露，最近已將手上的歐元、日圓等換馬至美元。

瑞銀港股研究部主管陸東上周將恒指目標由28500點調低至26800點，但強調並非看淡港股，「港股現在並非熊市，而是牛市深度調整。」他解釋，熊市並非單指股價下跌，還包括企業盈利倒退。

陸東表示，目前對恒指的合理值預測，是以保守的盈利預測和比之前更保守（正常化）的風險溢價假設。「本港企業盈利今年仍有增長，只是增幅放緩，未有如預期般高。其實市場的預測亦由早前極度樂觀，漸趨於貼近現實。」

他又預期，恒指今年走勢將是「低高低」，大市或下試較首季低位更低的水平，但相信在20000點有強力支持，相當於13倍市盈率，遠低於歷史平均水平。不過，恒指今年難望升越去年底收報的約27800點水平。

市場都在憧憬美國次按餘波快到尾聲，但陸東不認同此說。「美國最差還未過，有排捱，次按問題尚未見到曙光。」然而，他說美國經濟對港股的影響，程度已有別以往，故相信港股在企業盈利的支持下，不會大幅逆轉。不過，他認為本港無可避免要面對高通脹，但同時經濟放緩的stagflation（滯脹）壓力。

另外，陸東認為，中資股早前大幅下跌，現價已反映首季業績欠佳的預測，因此相信中資股大跌機會不大。

索羅斯：歐元暫未能完全取代美元

索羅斯(George Soros)剛於新一期Fortune提及以下論點

The dollar. The dollar is still the unquestioned reserve currency, although that position has weakened and the willingness to hold dollars has declined. But, there is no replacement for the dollar. The euro is coming up, but it's already overvalued. People don't want to switch from dollar to euro. They're just diversifying from dollar to euro!

China. China is in danger of an asset bubble, one that could easily head to a financial crisis ... But I do think that China is much better situated than we are. While their exports will get hit, they have to power to stimulate domestic consumption via government spending.

Oil prices. A lot depends on whether the recession hits the developing world as well as the developed world. The impact of consums in the US using less gas is much less than the impact of someone in China shifting from a bicycle to a scooter or to a car!

畢菲特：做投資專家要多看多讀，做不了便買指數基金算了

畢菲特(Warren Buffett)剛於新一期Fortune提及以下論點

How do you get your ideas? I just read. I read all day. I mean, we put US$500M in PetroChina. All I did was read the annual report.

投資賺錢沒有免費午餐，相信大家現以清楚純跟報章、親友或同事的所謂「貼士」投資，是否能幫大家賺到錢！

What advice would you give to someone who is not a professional investor? Where should they put their money? If they're not going to be an active investor - and very few should try to do that - then the should just stay with low-cost index funds. They're not going to be able to pick the right price and the right time. What they want to do is avoid the wrong price and wrong stock!

盈富基金(2800)、A50中國基金(2823)及國企指數ETF(2828)就是香港的low-cost index funds，但卻經常被大部分投資者遺忘，他們嫌ETF波幅小，以為可以憑投資其他股票賺得更多，但現實是他們不自覺嫌自己輸得少！

What should we say to investors now? The answers is you don't want investors to think that what they read today is important in terms of their investment strategy. Their investment strategy should factor in that (1) if you knew what we going to happen in the economy, you still wouldn't necessarily know waht was going to happen in the stock market. And (b) they can't pick stocks that are better than average. Stocks are a good thing to own over time.

於中短線而言，股票市場走勢難於捉摸，但不少投資者卻想當然以經濟角度分析股市中短線走勢！可惜，於中短線而言，市場資金多少及取向，卻比基本分析更重要！

畢菲特：現在不要純以宏觀分析作投資決定

How does the current turmoil stack up against past crisis? That's hard to say. Every one has so many variables in it. But there's no question that this time there's extreme leveraging ......

The scenario you're describing suggests we're a long way from turning a corner. I think so. It seems everybody says it'll be short and shallow, but it looks like it's just the opposite. Deleveraging by its nature takes a lot of time, a lot of pain. Now, I don't invest a dime based on macro forecasts. I don't think people should sell or buy stocks because of that

By your fule, now seems like a good time to be greedy. People are pretty fearful. You're right. They are going in that direction. That's why stocks are cheaper. Stocks are a better buy today than they were a year ago. Or three years ago.

But you're still bullish about the U.S. for the long term? The American economy is going to be fine. But it won't do fine every year and every week and every month. If you don't believe that, forget about buying stocks anyway. We get more productive every year. It's a positive-sum game, long-term. And the only way an investor can get killed is by high fees or by trying to outsmart the market.

投資組合及投資策略

陸東及索羅斯分別提醒大家不要過份看淡美元，甚至可於下半年看好。若美元不再弱下去，商品價格上升動力將受抑制，通脹亦較易受控。日元回跌，又可擔當套利交易重要角色，使投放於股市的錢增多。事實上，股市從三月中反彈至上週，美元兌日元亦由低於100升至高於104，究竟有雞先還是有蛋先，自行判斷！另外，商品不好炒下，資金不排除回流股市。而若美元轉強，人民幣升勢將放緩，中國出品競爭力不再惡化，據索羅斯所言，出口好，內需才能受剌激！

但陸東、索羅斯及畢菲特同時認為美國的次按問題需時解決，不會忽然冇事，就算股市回升，投資者也不要想得過份心雄，不要憧憬去年下半年大升的市况再度出現，因為回看那時市况實不正常，不會經常發生！

據陸東分析，恒指於今年未來時間將游走於20,000至27,800間，並會年尾收低，目標暫訂26,800。現報24,200，美市上週五大升，恒指於週一將高開2%至3%以上，即24,800左右，相當於16倍市盈利率，若以畢菲特提倡的長線投資論，此位買貨仍不貴，但因上面裂口及蟹貨區，中短線上升空間不算很大，但應有力破25,000頭的裂口底部！

投資組合方面，週五以$1.43沽出盈進集團(1386)，打個和！

投資組合成立兩年四個月，回報152%，即平均年回報49%。以現值計，55%為現金，當中30%為人民幣，25%為港元；41%為長線投資，現升值12%，成本大約為恒指21,600；4%為中線投資，現升值4%，但於本月初買入作中線投資的股票已止蝕得七七八八，共虧損$8,000左右。

分析一下，現時市况比最惡劣時已變得越來越好，投資組合的持現金比例似乎過多，先前制訂的「15%資金於19,500至20,500買貨，另外15%資金於17,500至18,500再買貨」亦變得越來越遙不可及，應是參考大師之言，修訂投資策略之時！

最近之中線投資失利後，今次還是暫時專注作長線投資。筆者新制訂的恒指入貨位為

週一(預期恒指開24,800)：用9%資金買貨，使長線投資比率升至50%，使成本大約升至恒指22,200
恒指23,500：用5%資金買貨
恒指22,500：用5%資金買貨
恒指21,500：用5%資金買貨
恒指20,500：用5%資金買貨 (仍保留30%資金為人民幣現金)

此策略還是相對保守，但看清形勢才再作修訂！

(按一下下圖可放大)


(Contact: redmonkey@redmonkey.hk)

免責聲明：本網頁屬個人網誌，一切言論並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦，讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定，如因相關言論招致損失，概與本人無涉。(投資涉及風險，證券價格可升可跌)<